Scottish Independence (?)

It's looking like bad news for the rest of the UK's political establishment

ANDREW GRICE Author Biography POLITICAL EDITOR Monday 08 September 2014

In the two-year Scottish referendum campaign, Whitehall and Westminster have been in denial about the prospect of Scotland voting Yes to independence. Suddenly, as the opinion polls show it as a very real prospect, the London-based political establishment is anxiously thinking about the implications.

“The consequences, not just for England, but Wales and Northern Ireland, are frankly unimaginable,” one senior Whitehall official said today. This is not an obscure debate about more devolution: some MPs fear the peace process in Northern Ireland, or at least order on the streets, could be at risk, and that there could be new demands for a united Ireland. There would inevitably be calls for a stronger Welsh Assembly, more devolution to the English regions and even an English Parliament.

If Scots vote to walk out of the marriage, there is no guarantee of an amicable “velvet divorce”. Alex Salmond could afford to be conciliatory in victory. He would invite a vanquished Alistair Darling to join all-party talks to ensure a smooth transition to “independence day” in March 2016.

Yet an angry public mood in the rest of the UK, especially in England, could push the political parties into rejecting a friendly separation. Cabinet ministers already describe the SNP’s timetable as “completely unrealistic,” when there are complex issues like the Trident nuclear weapons base on the table. Speaking privately, they suspect that there would be trade-offs, and that Mr Salmond might ditch his “non-nuclear Scotland” policy in return for concessions in other areas.

But it is now dawning on MPs that a public backlash from English voters against the Scots could force the Government to take a much harder line than ministers expect. If the Scots reject enjoying the “best of both worlds” - more devolution and the security of the UK – then why should the remaining UK do them any favours during the divorce settlement? Yes campaign material as the campaign ahead of the Scottish independence referendum continues Yes campaign material as the campaign ahead of the Scottish independence referendum continues

Such pressures could force the Conservatives to take a hardline stance on the negotiations in their manifesto at next May’s general election. A Scottish breakaway would provide yet more ammunition for Ukip. If Nigel Farage demanded a tough line in the talks, the Tories might have to match it. In turn, that could put pressure on Labour to follow suit.

Who would be leading the Tories at the time? We don’t know. Mr Cameron has dismissed the idea that he would have to resign after presiding over the end of the 300-year Union. But he has to say that now. If he were to hint at anything else, it would allow the SNP to shout: “Vote Yes to kick out the Tory Prime Minister.”

Cameron critics on the Tory backbenches have already started to discuss amongst themselves whether a Yes vote next week could be the trigger for a coup against him as party leader. They would need the votes of 46 of the 304 Tory MPs to force a vote of confidence. Opinions are divided over whether this would be the right moment to strike. Some Tories want to wait until after next May’s general election. If there were a hung parliament and Mr Cameron tried to continue in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, then Tory rebels say he would be “toast”. The Better Together leader Alistair Darling campaigning in Edinburgh, where he met voters and set out his case for a No Vote in the Scottish Referendum The Better Together leader Alistair Darling campaigning in Edinburgh, where he met voters and set out his case for a No Vote in the Scottish Referendum

Would Cameron fall on his sword after a Yes vote? “I think his instinct would be to carry on and steady the ship,” said a long-standing friend. “What could save him is that the general election is not far off. But if things got really awful, and there was economic turmoil, then it might be different.”

There is already speculation in Tory circles over who might succeed Mr Cameron. The rumour mill suggests that George Osborne would be ruled out because his nuclear weapon in the referendum campaign – that Scotland could not keep the pound – backfired on the No camp, adding to Mr Salmond’s list of threats, bullying and bluffs. With Boris Johnson unlikely to return to Parliament until next May, William Hague, the Commons Leader, who led the Tories from 1997 to 2001, is seen as the most likely caretaker.


A Yes vote next week could provoke calls for next May’s general election to be delayed, on the grounds that there would be little point in electing 59 Scottish MPs for 10 months until “independence day.” That would require legislation to overturn the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act. But it might prove too controversial, as it would allow Ukip to accuse the Tories and Lib Dems of clinging on to power.

In the long run, some Labour figures fear they would struggle to win another Commons majority without their solid block of Scottish MPs - 41 at present. The gossip among Blairite MPs is that their hero could still “win” England, but that a left-leaning leader could not. A Yes vote could be very bad news for Ed Miliband.

Source.

the precedent it sets for Catalonian secessionists in Spain

Go go Scottish independence!!

The British government owns 81 percent of R.B.S. after the bank received a £45 billion bailout during the financial crisis.

They have to apply to become a member of the EU and NATO.

Too late for a William Wallace reference ?

I've been to Scotland...it still looks like this.

I would like to go back sometime. Seeing a castle in real life was quite impressive. It is literally like being back in time with the buildings etc.

FREEEEDDDDOOOOMMMM!!

From what a good scottish friend of mine has told me there is a lot of campaigning to vote yes in scotland and nothing on why they shouldnt. GL to them if they do vote yes there is a lot of things they will need to figure out and a lot of stuff they will potentially lose. They get totally free health care they dont have to pay once they are over 18 for prescriptions and education is all free where as you need to pay for university. Apparently according to my friend the government up there are saying they will do away with road tax as well.... pretty sure they wont as they will need all the money they can get till stuff is sorted but heyho most governments are built on empty promises so nothing new there.

Prediction of the future: 2020 American forces are invading Scotland to give them freedom.... and to liberate their oil lulz.

I would like to go back sometime. Seeing a castle in real life was quite impressive. It is literally like being back in time with the buildings etc.

FREEEEDDDDOOOOMMMM!!
Prediction of the future: 2020 NATO forces are invading Scotland to give them freedom.... and to liberate their oil lulz.

There are a lot of very good financial and social reasons for them to not seperate. And like I said, I think the timing right now is...poor. But I think they'll manage if they do. It's as much of a hit to England as anything if it happens, but they'll survive too. They always do.

In the long run I think this could be beneficial and something that's long overdue.

Not sure on the timing and, in the short term at least, it will make things harder on them. If they tie themselves financially to the GBP as some have suggested, they're just trading one tie to GB to another. And if they don't, they're looking at some significant issues with interest rates on their own currency/etc. Ireland, for instance, is still having issues with their own currency since beginning it many years back.

I'm not enough of a financial mind to really get too heavily into it, but I have an interest in this topic from a cultural and historical standpoint, so I've done some reading on it recently on a few financial sites.

It's going to be a bumpy road, that's for sure, but a beneficial one in the end. In the immediate future, however, it's going to be a headache for many on a pragmatic level.

Ireland are using the Euro.

You have probably read about the resession as that hit Ireland hard and their major bank had to be bailed out. Thats just northern though idk about the rest but I do know they use the Euro.

Hopefully Scotland will use its own currency, as it prints bank its own bank notes now. They just need to amount a vast reserve of foreign currency as a safeguard.

Don't need the GBP, as that's what is causing this disaster now, *** the Euro, and please for the love of god stay away from the dollar as much as possible (although technically everything is still tied to the dollar, for now).

Keep it safe and follow Hong Kong's example. You have the resources to do so.

Yeah...no, this was specifically referencing the Irish Pound. I dunno. I can't find the article again (it was on the money section of either MSN or Reuters, I think), and don't have time to dig thoroughly for it atm. =\

Had a little look around and they stopped using the irish pound between 1999-2002 and took on the Euro so must have been from before then.

@Chaosx

1. A free Scotland wants to join the EU as quickly as possible. The politicians stated this multiple times, as well as, joining NATO
2. The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to USD at a fixed rate.

European Commission spokeswoman Pia Ahrenkilde-Hansen refused to make any new comment on the Scottish referendum at the Commission's daily press briefing on Monday, saying "it is for the Scottish people and for the British citizens to decide on the future of Scotland".

She said the EU executive's position on an independent Scotland had not changed.

She refused to spell out what that was, but in response to a request from Reuters, the Commission sent a letter from European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso to a member of Britain's upper chamber of parliament in 2012. In the letter, Barroso sets out the Commission's position on whether an independent Scotland would remain part of the 28-nation EU.

"If part of the territory of a member state would cease to be part of that state because it were to become a new independent state, the (EU) treaties would no longer apply to that territory," Barroso said, meaning an independent Scotland would no longer be part of the EU.

He pointed out however that any European state which met the EU's membership criteria may apply to join the EU.

NEW STATE

Asked whether an independent Scotland would have to apply to join NATO, a NATO official told Reuters that no discussions had been held on the issue and no decisions have been taken.

"However, it appears widely agreed that, as a matter of law, a Scotland which has declared its independence and thereby established its separate statehood would be viewed as a new state. A new state would not be a party to the North Atlantic Treaty, and thus not a member of NATO," the official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said.

"If it were to choose to apply for NATO membership, its application would be subject to the normal procedure," he said.

Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond, leader of the pro-independence campaign, has dismissed suggestions that an independent Scotland would struggle to join NATO if it removed Britain's Trident nuclear deterrent from Scotland as planned by 2021, or be refused membership of the EU.

Negotiations to join the EU and NATO can take years.

Barroso weighed in to the Scottish referendum debate when he told a BBC television interviewer in February that states breaking away from existing EU countries would struggle to gain EU membership.

All EU states would need to back the membership of any new country that emerged from a member state, he said.

"It would be extremely difficult to get approval of all the other member states ... I believe it's going to be extremely difficult, if not impossible," Barroso said.