Are Large Language Models Really AI?

It's not, they announced it as 100k per year and would apply to all people currently in the country too. The next day they got massive pushback from the tech companies and now it's 100k one time fee and only applies to new entrants. Nothing when you split it up over a long period of time.

As Thorny said, the best way to fight this sadly is to use the dark magic. Make it a social justice issue, fight for the rights of Indians to have all the entitlements western workers have and that will make them less appealing as preferential worker drones for the machine.

You either need to stop them being profitable / coming in, or you enshitify them as a workforce, under the guise of social justice.

Indians will gladly work long hours and have less benefits, so the choice needs to be taken away from them and they need to get limited working hours and higher pay forced upon them to make them less desirable as they currently are.

If they currently have the choice to be amazing workers and boost productivity for the companies, their value needs to be ruined by unions and progressives.

Ok, $100k one off is clearly dumb too. Shouldn't have been hard to find an appropriate value. $100k over 5 years is just $20k a year. Undercutting of salaries would be way more than that.

bleh had typed up something and timed out so here's the tldr

economic collapse of US empire is inevitable.

USA may try to win AI race but does not stand a chance economically vs. BRICS. maybe 50 years ago, not today.

I'm cheering for some kind of global agreement that moves away from the rise and fall of empires, they don't last and are only good for a few and for a (relatively) short time.

Well...those billionaires also pays more tax(in terms of % in overall tax source) than average people, and donate far more money than average people when natural disasters hits.

Sounds like they contribute to the society way more than average people to me.

And never mind the fact that nearly every adult, at least in my region, has at least 1 stock market account that makes money from corporation gains.

None of these contributions needs to be hired to get. Corporations can hire foreigners, but citizens still got the benefit from their tax/donations/stock contribution the same way. They don't need to be hired by the corporations to get the social benefit from them.

So yup, national economic growth IS a "me" benefit, and this "me" can really be any citizens in the same economy. Corporations benefits the society, it's your problem to see them as "they" instead of "us". It's your loss though.

I have no idea HOW you ended up having such prediction. Reading from different sources of data, I think the advantage of the US in the global economy is very clear, with no sign of losing to other competitors as of now.

The economy has been weak as a whole due to rate hike a few years ago, but the effect affects everyone in the world, not just the US.


Never gonna happen. If the US empire collapse, then a other empire will rise and replace it. The situation of every nation in the world has equal power and influence doesn't exist.

Also, if US empire collapse and another empire try to replace it, you will see some serious military conflicts and power struggle as part of process. I don't see how is this a good thing.

AI race is already an arms race, and no it won't be a good thing

The dog should wag the tail, the tail should not wag the dog.

Elon Musk and Jeff Beizos were able to build their empires because of the infrastructure of the nation they setup in, that was built off the back of current and many past generations of American workers.

You think Elon Musk and Jeff Beizos would be billionaires if they tried to do what they did in India? If Indian workers are so valuable why don't they go there instead of making sure they stay in the US?

If you're an amazing artist or writer (or businessman), the reason you were able to perfect your art and can carry it out is not becasue you're a super special wonder snowflake but because of all the infrastructure around you that lifts you up.

The police giving you safe environment and stopping people burning your house down, the sewage workers that allow you to have clean water and toilet facilities so you can concentrate on your job, the power workers that make sure you have constant energy, the medical system that keeps you healthy etc

Globalism is some BS, it's a system the mega wealthy want in order to be able to farm whatever they want from anywhere and ignore the people/society who helped them build up their empires in the first place.

It's extreme selfishness, and the act of paying taxes isn't because they want to but because they know they have to in order to be allowed to exist at all.

if that were true, then why have US wages stagnated over the past 50 years? the American dream worked because everyone was getting more, until they weren't

Year | Real GDP Index | Median Wage Index
---------|----------------|-------------------
1975 | 100 | 100
1985 | 135 | 110
1995 | 180 | 115
2005 | 230 | 120
2015 | 280 | 125
2020 | 310 | 130
2025* | 340 | 135

Not here in the USA.

But these last two pages have gotten way deep into social justice and comparative wages and hardly anything about AI.

Russia and India are hardly trying with AI. China is killing it, noone could compete with them if they weren't banned from buying GPUs. China has the model architectures, America has the GPUs, they should really join forces. Only problem is China would never allow a model to talk about Tianenmen etc.

What are you trying to say here? Sure America offered a good environment that allows big company to be successful, but didn't they pay some money back to their country?

Both Elon Musk and Jeff Beizos has offices in America no? They hired tens and thousands of Americans no? They pay tax in the US no? Americans are making their 401k money from mega-7 no? Why are you ignoring all that contributions to the US and pretend they only ever give money to indians? It's just silly.



If you have ever buy anything made in China or Vietnam in life because you want to save money, then you are a benefiter of globalism lol.

Lol@people complain about globalism, AND subsequently complain about inflation and products costing too much. The only reason why average poor people in a wealthy nation aren't forced to pay $300 for their shoes and T-shirts that they can't afford is precisely because of globalism. You can't be a benefiter of the system and complain about the system on the same time, it's double standard.

I am confused at your main point. First you said US will "collapse", and BRICS will win. Then you said US has wage stagnation? How are they even related?

1. How does wage stagnation leads to US collapse, realistically?

2. Does BRICS suffer from wage stagnation like the US or not?

3. If they don't now, will it happen once they reach similar level of GDP as the US?

If you can answer all 3 questions above, then maybe your conclusion is grounded in reality. Otherwise it's just baseless doom and gloom.



I blame Rady. Dude just took every possible opportunity to rant about politics with tons of biased opinions, then you either ignore those biased opinions or respond.

debt. the wealthy can relocate on a whim if things turn sour. the lower/middle class cannot and have mountains of personal debt not to mention a government with 37 trillion worth, increasing 2 trillion yearly. it isn't sustainable.

Not gonna happen. One mountain can not contain 2 tigers.

It's not sustainable for any other nations except the US.

US can pretty much export it's debt globally by leveraging US dollar's status. And this status comes from US military and economic influence dominance.

No other nations in this world has this kind of privilege.

Don't worry, you are safe in the foreseeable future.

More like an orange troll and a dictator that looks like a cartoon bear than two tigers.

Fixed.

Consumers can't afford to buy non essentials. Retailers go broke. Vulture capitalists strip them for parts and invest offshore where their profits multiply.

We are currently in that phase. Wait a year or two and see how this shakes out.

Maybe this is why youre having problems at work ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If this is really the case, then the whole tactic of "use tariffs to threaten other nations to pay for the US debt" won't work at all.

But it worked though. Because this tactic is built on the fact that other nation needs US money to even survive, and the US government leveraged this advantage. So it's easy to get the conclusion that US isn't about to collapse yet. Not even close.

I think US is still far away from that phase. And if it happens, many other nations in the world will collapse FIRST. Because US can export debt and inflation to the rest of the world by having dollar dominance. So other nations will suffer hardcore way before the US.


1 or 2 years?? The chance of this happenings within 10 years is already very VERY small, and I feel it wouldn't happen within 50 years at all, maybe even 100.

Before US even collapse you will see a whole lot of ***happen in this world. Other countries economic collapse first, China or Russia invasion, proxy wars everywhere. Then a new winner will be born from the ashes as the next world leader.

THEN you can officially announced US has collapsed and dead.

We are still far away from there. Like, FAR.

Also, keep in mind that Fed just started rate cut in September, after 2 years of high rate.

So the phase you are experiencing isn't a sign of economic collapse, just normal QE > QT cycle imo.

I don't envy your certainty, afania. I'm not dumb enough to wish for the financial ruin of my country and people, but thinking we're indestructible is extremely naive when history shows this very situation repeated again and again. then combine the volatility of AI growth in the future, and what I do know is it will be a wild ride in the next few years.

It's already law that they get equal pay and the exact same conditions as US workers. Companies that sponsor H1-B can not discriminate based on status.

The trick is that you pay around with job titles and therefor compensation bands. This goes back to what I posted earlier, US workers (Western in general) seem to want to demand senior positions right out of university where H1-B out of India are just happy to have a job. The much bigger, motivator, is that the H1-B slot is given to the company not the worker. If the worker loses that H1-B slot, then they have a very short window to find another or be removed back to their home nation, where they would have to win another lottery.

There are other contracting systems, but that's a different discussion.

I'm in favor of just canceling the entire H1-B program. It was created as a way to allow hyper specialized foreign scientist's and technicians to work in the USA, not import cheap IT labor.

Well yes, this situation has repeated again and again, and it can happen to the US in the future too. But the real question is WHEN?

For an empire to collapse, it has to show some bad signs first. What signs are we seeing now?

We are seeing consumer spending slowed down recently, sure. But is it just normal economic correction, or a sign of collapse? How many steps are there, between economic correction and ultimate collapse?

If there are 100 steps needed that leads to ultimate collapse, where are we? Maybe we walked 3 steps closer and still 60 steps away, but people are saying it's collapsing now.

Why worry about things so far away?

Realistically, If the US shows any signs of weakness, China will start military action. For me that's the real sign of US weakening. And even then that's just the first sign.

If it's just simple economic downturn, which is what we are experiencing now, then it's still safe imo.

We need AI robots/drones that can deliver amazon crap and and food for fatties, then we won't have to import half of africa to do it.

If you're gonna do AI, make it proper AI you lazy hoes.

I'm still convinced you're from part of the UK with very low levels of immigrants.

Also this is hard to do objectively unless you have clear criteria for things like qualifications, number of years of experience, efficiency, etc. Simply having a better or higher level of degree doesn't equate to better, nor does more years of experience doing something, then when it comes to value to a company it gets subjective and messy. It is this that will always be used to undercut the market.

Other nations do not pay tariffs. Consumers pay tariffs. Tariffs drive up prices leading to:

Etc.

Two words: Smoot Hawley.

Fixed,

We are, they did, the first sign has happened.

Oh other nations absolutely did lol. Real life economy is not as simple as "just let the US consumer pay" in the industry.

If nation A has to pay 15% tariffs, nation B has to pay 20%. Nation B is in a severe disadvantage when they compete with nation A in this case, because they are making 5% less, and nation A will ended up getting all the business by having more room to undercut.

So in this case, 1) Nation B is losing 5% of money when they do business with the US 2) Nation B will need to negotiate a deal with the US government so they can remain competitive against nation A, by giving US government some benefit(money) so they stay competitive.

One Japanese analyze report says tariff doesn't affect all industry equally. For entertainment industry, tariff price increase can be added on the product price and let the US consumers pay. For some other industry like EV, the foreign manufacturers has to absorb all the tariff themselves so they can maintain their market share.

It's a very complicated matter with tons of nuance, and the impact of each industry in every country has to discuss case by case to get the full picture.

Saying ALL tariffs are being paid by the US consumer is oversimplifying things and devaluing the actual impact.

US 100% knows this outcome btw, they leveraged other nation's economy dependency on the US market and took advantage of it. If US buying power is as low as you believed, then this strategy won't work at all.