Mog Bonanza

No, you get to win twice, now that you can get a special weapon upgrade. Instead of a second pick of trash after you already picked the only good one.
(Which is still trash but people goon over)

I know, guy, you think (this weapon) is cool, too, but I don't care. If you won and took the spear and kept playing to win the h2h know that I personally cheer you on.

What a bold statement lacking any and all specifics. If you're going to lay your balls on the table like that, at least name which of the weapons you think is "the only good one".

Everyone knows what the only good one is. (the one they think is good, to be accurate)

The same one it's always been. The same one mentioned every time bonanza comes up.

Then name it numbnuts. I don't play enough jobs to know what it is, so inform my poor ignorant self. At least have the balls to do that much.

The optimist in me makes me want to believe this means that they will give us another way to get the Bonanza weapons.

The realist in me think I'm an idiot and that all of my trust issues with SE are completely justified. Are they seriously going to put effort into making things that next to no one will get? What the ever lasting *** are they thinking?

Maybe you're on to something. We've requested allowing us to obtain these weapons in game for a long time now, and criticized making them impossible to obtain.

However, if they were to actually release them in-game it would nullify their rank 1 Bonanza status.

Well to fix that they could just add +1 versions by winning the Bonanza now. Normal people can get nq versions doing content, bonanza winners get otherwise unobtainable +1 replacing what the nq was before.

Surely, they don't actually expect anyone to win two Rank 1 bonanza's, surelllly... right?

Playerbase: the crepuscular visibles have a horrible drop rate, pls fix

SE: ok, we add to Trove and later bonanza rank 2

It's not unreasonable to think they may release the Bonanza line eventually, and the new carrot to keep you Bonanzaing will be the +1/reforged version or the upgrade item to make it. There always needs to be a carrot to dangle for players, and that carrot needs to be replaced in order to not lose player interest. We've seen these weapons as the Rank 1 prize for a few years now, and the novelty of them has pretty much worn off. They needed a new one to get our attention.

I was actually surprised they didn't do something like make a "Perfect Plaudits" tier for VanaBout where you couldn't miss any objectives, for a chance at a ??? Weapon that can be appraised for a random Bonanza weapon, or something. Because that Old Case +1 x3 is wearing off on players too, and it's only a matter of time until players look at the Vanabout reward's list and say "don't care".

This is my big takeaway. It took effort to program, develop, test, all for something that NO ONE is going to get.

Someone run the odds of someone winning twice. I'd love to see how many years it takes before that % chance is over 50%.

This is the equivalent of making +1 versions of GM weapons.

It was already mentioned earlier but this is only the math for someone with 0 bonanza weapons, so it wouldn't be the chance that anyone gets one of these.

The chance that SOMEONE ends up with one of these weapons is near-100%, tbh. It might be someone's mule or something but there have to be 500 people out there with rank 1 prizes, so if all of them play bonanza this time, on average 1 bonanza+1 will be available. You'd have to be insane not to take it, but i guess it could depend on what it does.

It's still ungodly rare and a lot of effort (IMO) for something that will get very, very limited use, but let's not pretend that nobody will ever see one of these and the effort was a total waste.

This is fairly bog standard eastern design though, ultra rare gatcha chase items for people to dream about with absolutely *** odds to keep those dreams from accidently becoming a reality and stopping the chase.

See I don't believe you. I want to see actual math, involving the number of people who enter on average, the number of people who win on average, and the odds that, given the number of mog bonanzas we've had, what are the odds that someone who had the OPPORTUNITY to get a weapon during the 11 possible changes someone could have picked a weapon. I'm not even including the people who could have and choose something else. Here, I'll do some of the leg work.

December 2020: 102 winners.
February 2021: 88 winners.
May 2021: 75 winners.
August 2021: 49 winners.
December 2021: 40 winners. (Why the *** were there so many in 2021?)
May 2022: 185 winners. (I think this is when the double marble started)
December 2022: 200 winners.
May 2023: 62 winners.
December 2023: 136 winners.
May 2024: 136 winners. (Not a typo)
December 2024: No one even bothered to write it down so it's lost to time. Not even the wayback machine has it. Good job everyone.

Assuming the absolute highest amount recorded for December 2024, that's a grand total of 1273 people who have won first place. Using very rough math to estimate how many marbles are bought in total (Taking the last place and multiplying by 10) you get 126,050 total marbles.

The odds of those 1273 people winning out of 126050 entries is less than 1%. SE wasted development time on something that has less than a percentage chance of happening.

The rewards were never appealing. There are too many people playing way too many characters who are gonna chase just to chase, regardless of reward. So SE keeps getting the message that players enjoy it by participation, and we keep getting more of the same.

There are those of us, who log...everything:

I'll add it to the wiki if I have time. Regardless, it seems I over-estimated. The odds slightly even worse than my calculation.

Still better odds than a max aug +2 earring for the job you want

Sure but you have more than 4 chances a year to get one.

How do we interpret this? Do we assume that everyone buys 2 of the same number, so there were really only 76 winners? How many of these 'wins' are negated by the fact that it's someone's mule?

I also feel like people should be allowed to buy more pearls if the expectation is that you need to win twice to fully unlock your prize.

Unless every single person there won twice by buying the same marble, no, it's 152 people who won.

Think of it this way:
You can pick two numbers from 0 to 999. We'll round that up to 1000 possible numbers to make the math a little easier.
The odds of winning 3rd place is 1 in 10, meaning if you buy two marbles, and they are different numbers, you have a 2 in 10 chance of winning, or 1 in 5. Likewise, for 2nd and 1st place you have a 1 in 50 and 1 in 500 chance of winning. If you were able to buy 10 marbles, you would have a 1 in 1 chance of winning 3rd place because you can literally just buy all the numbers. Back in the day that's how people guaranteed getting the lowest ranked item.

As for how many wins are negated being on a mule or because someone choose something other than a weapon, we can't really know. Some people have no mules and only buy 2 marbles. Some people are freaks and have 15 mules and buy 32 marbles in the hopes of some day winning first place only to spend it on the Ragnarok painting because they're psychopaths.

I'm the psychopath. I want the damn painting.

0-999 is 1000 numbers. The math already works.

Your odds winning on two separate occasions(with different numbers)
vs your odds winning once picking the same number for both pearls.

vs being able to pick two different numbers and only having to win once?

Probably not winning in any case, but one of these feels better than the other two.

Not so bad, about a 1/3 chance of a Rank 2 and a Crepuscular thing with 32 marbles (full 16 characters on account, different number on each). Same account D-box sendable too!

My two characters were fishing for thier last Omen bodies in past few Bonanzas, 4/5 on each with like 2-3 of those from past Bonanzas and the rest from pre-diluted AMAN Trove. But I guess I'll have to be satisfied with that outside of a Trove Miracle, cause I'm not choosing Omen bodies I won't use over Crepuscular.

I do have 3 rare Crepuscular pieces... all from Trove lolllll (Cloak on both of my characters, Helm on one). Sure would love a Mail to go with that Helm, or Knife on the other character (my BRD). And I'm sure as hell not gonna go fight Shinryu for them!


Well they do one maybe unexpected thing - the modern Bonanza coinciding with free login campaign is pretty nice for not needing to actually pay to reactivate the many dormant mules I haven't paid for in ages. I'm cool with buying marbles on them, and paying the dollar to reactivate and collect the prize if any of them manage to hit a rank 1/2 number.


That sure does sound like a good Besieged item... Maybe just wishful thinking from the time I've already invested (wasted?) in doing Besieged to build up some Imperial Standing Accolades (LOL that name) in hopes it will be good for something and I won't be starting from nothing once the good rewards appear.


LMFAO I also kind of love that one as the best troll.

Half these people have already quit, but assuming they're all still playing and all buy 2 pearls, odds that one of them gets a winning pearl and can upgrade their prize is 1273/500, or about 250%.

Can you explain your math there? The 1273 I get, the 500 I do not.

It's technically 1 - (1 - 1/500)^1273 probability (92%) that at least one of them gets it.

He was calculating the expected number of them to get it, which is number of independent samples (1273 if no one has quit) times the probability per sample (1/500), which is about 2.5.

1273 people have 1/500 chance to win. 1273/500 winners will win weapon +1 if all of them participate. And choose iris.

All of them won't though.

oh, also at least one of those 1273 already won twice

Alright, I cede the point. Though I will say whoever does win twice I hope your butthole explodes.

If people start doubling up, we expect the same overall Rank 1 win rate, but each of them would represent a reforged mog bonanza weapon. In one bonanza, the number of first time winners with a reforged weapon (~75?) would crush the number of second time winners (2.5).

That said, many of those marbles are doubtlessly bought on mules, where it still makes sense to pick two different numbers.

Tl;Dr: who knows

Am I the only person who would get 2 different weapons if they won twice? We don't have all of the details yet, but I feel like that's still the play. Make a broken weapon even more OP or just make 2 broken weapons?

According to Eiryl there is only one weapon worth getting, and even then it's not actually.

He still won't say which one it is. Too afraid to get called out on his *** as usual.

None of them are broken, or even good, so yes you are in the very small minority that would take 2 different weapons.


Youve got to be pretty dense if you dont know which one. It's more fun that it annoys you than to tell you.

Literally every single time someones says "bonanza" literally every parrot says the same thing. I'd pick dis one.