April 2022 Version Update

My point was that he's stating a whole lot of things as fact, when they objectively cannot be verified in any way without access to server source. We have no way of knowing if the chests are predetermined, or rolled at time of opening, and since we have an indicator of an existing loud thud there's plenty of reason to believe they are predetermined.

Ultimately it doesn't really matter, since the strategy for dealing with it is the same regardless, just clarifying that we have no way of knowing if chests are predetermined. Even the mimic isn't by necessity predetermined, and we'd have very little way of knowing(could use a derivative of the monty hall problem maybe, depending on implementation).

I know you were. I was just highlighting that what you said is not uncommon here. One of those early morning "You said a mouthful" things.

I can't imagine if someone did know for sure the formula for Trove...
I do believe some people know of some patterns that tend to work better. That or they just have the lion's share of luck.

I don’t think if there are any patterns that work “better”, this is just the fallacy we use to justify our luck or lack thereof. Even Greyson tells you in his starting dialogue that this event is designed to be entirely luck based and you have no way of knowing which one the mimic is until you pick it. Which is why the event is both frustrating and rewarding: you get the thrill of knowing you “won” with the pattern you chose, but then you’ll also always second guess that same pattern after you get a mimic. You’ll always say “I SHOULD HAVE PICKED THAT OTHER CHEST” , which then corrupts/enhances your future attempts at the battlefield unless you stick to the same pattern every single time and just roll with it. (But you’ll still say shoulda coulda woulda)

And there very well may not be. Anecdotal but a guy in my LS makes out like a bandit with Trove and he claims he follows a certain pattern. Could be true, could be pulling people's legs to try and rationale his luck, nobody knows for sure.

How could there be a “better odds” pattern in a completely randomized coin flip-style event? Genuinely asking, not trolling

Also

No idea. There is still a lot to this game nobody even knows. I occasionally talk to Sapper on discord and he knows more about this game than anyone and there are things even he doesn't know due to things we don't have access to.

My only hypothesis would be that some things that we think are simple (as you said) "coin flip" luck may not be so cut/dry. The problem with Trove testing is that it's not so super easy to do unless you have a ton of mules.

I shouldn't oversimplify it by calling it a coin flip, as that's not mathematically accurate to Trove scenario. It's really 10% probability, but what I mean to say is, the location of the mimic is always hidden from the player, so from his perspective, every selection made is essentially a sudden-death type of choice. Either it is a 1/mimic or it's 2/"Not" (N, T, LT, but essentially one other possibility). At least that's the way your mind breaks down how you approach this event. It would be different if the game either opened a box for every correct box you opened or gave you hints as to how close to your last opened box the mimic is, which would help you eliminate the chances of picking a mimic yourself. But since the minigame doesn't give you any direct hints about the mimic, there's nothing you as a player can do to alter your strategy to improve your winnings. You simply pick and see what you get.

Their recent adjustment to giving people Belligerent Bang messages about LTs on the board and rewarding a guaranteed gold/rainbow box for 8 straight correct guesses is their way of coaxing you into testing your luck even further. Digital game of chicken, if you will.

Opened only 2 chests, stopped as soon as I heard a Loud Thud. The terminating coffer also turned out to be a Loud Thud and I got a pulse weapon. I sold the rest of my orbs because my luck with Mimics is impossible to gauge.

Oversimplification or not, I got your point. I know some swear by it but as I said, could be just some very lucky chap trying to find some scientific explanation for it happening. It wouldn't be the first time I've known or known of someone who tried playing off their luck as skill.

I had this happen to me and it lasted for a while. I "found" the pattern by failing several times and realizing the mimic was typically one of two chests. After finding that, I avoided those two chests and for a period of several months, was able to get through 9/10 Troves without triggering the mimic. It stopped working for a period, then I found recently there was a similar pattern and every failure I had was one of two locations. What is notable is that on other toons (I have a few trove mules), the same pattern would result in pretty consistent failure.

I don't think this is intentional, though, and despite being fairly consistent for me it still wasn't 100%. It's possible/likely I just got really lucky, there isn't a ton of randomness when you have such a small number of chests. A similar pattern emerged multiple times, though, most recently burning through my stash of vouchers on one toon, every failure case was 1 of 2 locations. I believe it is also possible the PRNG is being seeded by some character specific value that, when combined with the overall max # of options, results in a somewhat consistent pattern forming in rare cases.

The likelihood of a pattern i'd think would also depend on when the decision is made for where the mimic is. If it's made when you zone in and the chests are popped, then it's probably more likely a pattern could be replicated. If it's made when you open a chest, with increasing odds as you open more, then it's less likely (but this depends also on how they are generating random numbers).

I almost hesitate to post this, because I cannot prove it with certainty. I can only rely my experience with opening hundreds of boxes in long stretches of time. It usually takes me 6 hours to go through all of my AMAN mules depending on how many vouchers I have saved up.

I have 26 AMAN mules, so each month I go through alot of box opening. This month I happened to *still* have the silver vouchers saved from the last campaign we got a few months ago. I had been lazy and not used them yet.

There is a soft pattern. For a period of time the mimic will have a high probability (70%?) of being in 2-3 different fixed locations, and will continue this way for some time (an hour or two). Then after an hour or so the probably mimic locations will shift to different spots.

Once you get the mimic in the same spot a few times, just avoid it. This advice is probably only helpful though if you are opening a lot of boxes. If you open just 3-4 its not enough to make any adjustments.

Not sure if this has already been tested but Crepe Mail + Twilight Helm Auto Reraise Works

Yea any mix of Crep +twilight will trigger auto reraise.

I have no idea how some of yall do it, I really don't. I finally got my one and only mule that I have had for years (not alt) to 99 the last week (to spend my vouchers), and it absolutely took "forever" between LBs, farming Testimonies, merit points etc. You guys love this game on a different level than I ever could.

Automation.

No automation. This guide helps.

This is a lot of ballpark information. Definitely not scientific so please don’t take it that way.

I probably did 120 runs or so. All Mars. Maybe more, I dunno? I would estimate that I ran the trove for like 8 hours using many mules and alts over several days.

In these runs, I got a reasonable amount of LT. maybe 35 or 40?

2 rainbow boxes at the start

Maybe like 6 recharges when trading back to what’s his name

I got some HTBF stuff like malignance pole, odin fork, the body from alexander or the other COP one, has a high regen on it. Crep cloak (woot), no accessories from these fights for me yet.

2 omen bodies (pup one and mage one), 1 omen glove,

2 Tartarus platemails for 2 mules….my main characters have

2 volte pieces

1 odyssey amplifier…..why on earth is that an LT option?

A glowy escha body….why?

I got a ton of void pieces and that crap vexed gear or whatever it is. I mean a ton. I feel like 80% of LT were those. Perhaps I exaggerate.

I went LT or bust after the first few tries.

I made some rules for myself long ago and I follow those rules most of the time so hopefully, luck evens out over time. No science behind it, but the boxes sort of "light up" on my screen once I get close and look at them all from close enough to see them, but far enough to see them all. I avoid the last one that lights up. Sometimes it does well for me....sometimes not so much. Anyone need my tinfoil hat? Regarding previous poster saying it stays in an area. I think there is some truth there, but not sure it stays for 1-2 hours? Again, no science here. Just some crazy guessing.

26 mules that's like....$43 per month with 2 wardrobes?

Would rather invest $43 per month in stocks than paying SE cash grab anyways.

For a long time I would just open random.org, type out 1-10 in the list randomizer and try to follow that, clicking "Again!" each time I entered so I didn't feel like it was up to me entirely when getting ka'thwacked a bunch I can just blame this dumb randomizer! Assign the #s however you want but just helped me decide which to open next more easily.

Sure sure

If you have second account it only takes few hours.

“If”. That’s why I said mule and not alt. That entire guide is based on having two accounts with one PLing the other

Without cheating, it's absolutely miserable. Like getting the ***to open the doors for the crests, gross.

The levels themselves are meaningless trusts will solo the entire game for you. but *** those crests and maat. It's just not worth it. If they would add absolutely any possible way to skip those, though....

It's a simple game of chance Thorny. The only place for predetermined in this luck-based event is the mimic. Aside from the random event procs, everything else is rolled when you interact with it.


It's random because random works. Random makes people second guess their decisions, find patterns where they do not exist and even bow to superstition or chicken out and leave. Again, we are the community who turned crafting into witchcraft. There's probably still people setting alarms and waking up at god's hour to craft during moon phase while the face a certain direction at the protocrystal...

It's far less than that. $12.95 for the main character. Additional $12.95 for each alt. If you reactivate a mule the day before monthly renewal, pro rata rate will reduce the $1 reactivation down to around $0.05. Then immediately cancel the mule's subscription so you dont get full charged at the next billing cycle.

So for 26 mules, it will cost an additional $1.30 each month.
Which can be further reduced if you do on day of maintenance update. So you can pop 2 months of trove in one day reducing it to $0.65 a month for 26 mules.

(never actually do that, you will *** dread that day coming up and it'll make you miserable knowing you have so many MUST DO tasks in one day)

But it does indeed work in theory.

this community is absolutely finished
(i'm low key astounded at the pure payment cycle manipulation shenanigans at play here)

Has it been firmly established that it makes the decision when you interact with it or when you enter the zone? One is a single random roll, the other is however many you interact with, that makes a difference.

It's also worth pointing out that there is no real true 'random' here, it's pseudo-random. Many (most? all?) PRNGs are seeded by some value and initialized with specific values, and, if the same seed is passed, then patterns can form depending on the algorithm. There is a distinct possibility that given the low number of possibilities, combined with this, that however they are generating the random numbers can result in a pattern.

There isn't any voodoo going on behind the scenes like was oft attributed to things like TH, crafting, opening chests, etc, you are right about that, but programmatically they have to be doing only a handful of certain things. I think Thorny's point was that without seeing the code itself, it's hard to know exactly, but my point is also that it's not truly random and, while it may not be an explicit feature of Trove, patterns can and do seem to form.

For strategy, the only real takeaway from my experiences (and what I'm reading from others) is that you can horde your vouchers, burn through them within a certain period of time, and possibly identify a pattern to increase reliability.

If it were not for unity warps and login campaigns I would have agreed with you. But the crests and stones you can buy get from login points cheap. Maat on WHM is easy, and the least annoying part of the whole process. I had a single set of lvl 70ish whm gear I passed through to each mule - just keep running and the occasional cure or bene. Just need to last for 5 min.

But unity warps makes getting to all the level cap BCNM areas really simple now - I don't think I would have started this process without them.

Beastmen Stronghold crests (torch, key, orb) It's just excessive.

Not kindred crests lol