Theorycrafting Escutcheon Numbers -- Accurate?

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Theorycrafting escutcheon numbers -- accurate?
 Siren.Dekoda
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By Siren.Dekoda 2020-06-26 20:00:32
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Hey all,

I've been theorycrafting some numbers for some high price items using escutcheons but my numbers don't seem to be adding up and I'm wondering what I'm doing wrong. Basically I don't see how some items are possibly profitable.

Example: Bard Charm +2 sells for 80M, Bard Charm +1 sells for 6M.

Here are the materials and prices:

Dark Matter: 1.4M
Cehuetzi Claw: 900k
Cyan Coral: 1.1M
Alexandrite Crystal: 1M
Moldy Charm: 1.2M
Total: 5.6M

So a +2 charm nets you 74.4M profit while the +1 is 400k.

Suppose the base material loss rate is 50%, and with material loss reduction from the Escutcheon/etc that would be lowered to 30%, meaning you would lose about 1.68M on average per break. It's a T0 HQ (because of the subcraft) so it has a 1/64 (1.56%~) HQ rate, and with HQ modifiers of about 10% your highest HQ rate would be 1.56%*1.1=1.7%~. With the Escutcheon forced break, that means you're breaking about 98.3%~ of the time. The remaining 1.7%~ of the time, 75% of your HQ's will be HQ1 and the remaining 25% will be HQ2, meaning about 1.3% of the time you will HQ1 and only 0.4% of the time you will actually HQ2.

So putting it all together
98.3%~ of the time you will lose an average of 1.68M
1.3%~ of the time you will gain 400k
0.4%~ of the time you will profit 74.4M

If you combine these to examine your average gil per synth:
(.983)*(-1.68)+(.013)*(.4)+(.004)*(74.4)= -1.35M, meaning you'll never be making money. With a .4% HQ2 rate, you will have lost about 300M by the time you actually make and sell the +2 charm.

So either I'm doing something terribly wrong or the material retention is much higher or maybe it's even a T1 HQ synth. Any insight? Very curious because all of the JSE necklaces are similar even across servers.
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By Sidiov 2020-06-26 21:12:16
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failed to account for hq exploit.
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 Cerberus.Aerandir
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By Cerberus.Aerandir 2020-06-26 21:14:39
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I had heard the necks were actually T1 synths, but my guess for the seemingly low price would be the massive medal exploit that was going on and got patched months ago, or whatever the current-craft-related-exploit is. When there is likely still some number of accounts sitting on trillions of gil worth of materials combined with a "choose your own HQ adventure book", the price of those materials on the AH really isn't as relevant anymore.
 Siren.Dekoda
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By Siren.Dekoda 2020-06-26 21:35:58
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T1 seems believable but still not very profitable. Using the same technique for a T1 I'm getting about -70k/synth.

Was not aware of the exploits, I'm a recently returning player. Makes more sense, thanks.
 Asura.Eiryl
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By Asura.Eiryl 2020-06-26 21:39:40
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3 exploits and an unlimited item dupe, lol
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By gargurty 2020-06-27 00:55:45
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Please let someone find a chain dupe lol getting the 100k for the shield is insane.
 Lakshmi.Avereith
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By Lakshmi.Avereith 2020-06-27 03:07:22
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Necks feel like t1 when I'm doing them at least. Weapons do not (I'm unlucky I suppose). Necks I'm definitely in the green on. Weapons I'm like 200 or 300m in the red on

Then again, not like it really matters when sparks were nerfed to the ground and I have 6 +2 necks on the AH that won't sell. Thanks for stealing everyone's free Gil SE!
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 Siren.Dekoda
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By Siren.Dekoda 2020-06-27 03:33:09
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Lakshmi.Avereith said: »
Necks feel like t1 when I'm doing them at least. Weapons do not (I'm unlucky I suppose). Necks I'm definitely in the green on. Weapons I'm like 200 or 300m in the red on

Then again, not like it really matters when sparks were nerfed to the ground and I have 6 +2 necks on the AH that won't sell. Thanks for stealing everyone's free Gil SE!

That’s good news. Mind if I ask what your main and sub craft skill levels are at after equipment/support/etc?
necroskull Necro Bump Detected! [110 days between previous and next post]
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By Rips 2020-10-14 23:00:53
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From what I understand, the HQ exploit was patched.

But while chugging away on my T3 Clothcraft shield, I realized something chilling.

When there was the dupe Exploit around this time last year, not everyone got hit. Which means the dupes are running rampant with the unbanned characters.

What about the exploited HQs? What if they made so many that it’s not worth it to make the shield because you’re going up against 80/80 inventory * how many characters of +2?

I just don’t know.
 Asura.Eiryl
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By Asura.Eiryl 2020-10-14 23:04:06
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That was always my big complaint.

Sure. Account 1 with shield banned. yay. Except, Account(s) 2-100 with 12,000 items stored untouched.

Imagine being jailed for printing counterfeit money, but as long as you give it to your brother, he can still spend it. With zero consequences.
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By Rips 2020-10-14 23:19:51
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Asura.Eiryl said: »
That was always my big complaint.

Sure. Account 1 with shield banned. yay. Except, Account(s) 2-100 with 12,000 items stored untouched.

Imagine being jailed for printing counterfeit money, but as long as you give it to your brother, he can still spend it. With zero consequences.

Even though a banned shield still sucks (for them) it's so easy to get another one. You can get a craft to 98 and stage 2 in a day. Hell, stage 3 if you just cut out sleep.
 Asura.Wotasu
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By Asura.Wotasu 2020-10-15 02:50:40
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From what I heard 3 HQ exploits were patched, and there's still 3 they couldnt patch, hence why prices crash on occasions, like now when Su5's are edging below 100mil again.
 Asura.Arico
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By Asura.Arico 2020-10-15 02:53:40
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Rips said: »
Even though a banned shield still sucks (for them) it's so easy to get another one. You can get a craft to 98 and stage 2 in a day. Hell, stage 3 if you just cut out sleep.

How are you getting that much GP?
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By Pantafernando 2020-10-15 02:59:47
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And why are you asking that now?

Did you just woke up and though: "oh! i just noticed, the world is unfair!!!"?

The world isnt fair but it is logic. There is a limit how much human people can investigate, how many can be banned.

At that time there were hundreds of bots in ceizak covering for people who were duping safely inside their mog houses.

There is no evidence of an "auto ban" function in game. So, people gonna ban and people can make mistakes. Other people not gonna get caught. Other dozen of seasoned people gonna create hundreds of safety measures to mitigate major losses from a banning.

Those guys are no idiots, obviously from day one they were prepared to the cheat to be discovered and dealt with.

After a couple of months after the patch true story is that medals price even dropped in price. Su5 also didnt change much in price or supply.
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By Rips 2020-10-15 11:00:39
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Asura.Arico said: »
Rips said: »
Even though a banned shield still sucks (for them) it's so easy to get another one. You can get a craft to 98 and stage 2 in a day. Hell, stage 3 if you just cut out sleep.

How are you getting that much GP?

***, true lol. Wrote that late in the night for me.
 Asura.Toralin
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By Asura.Toralin 2020-10-15 11:02:29
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Asura.Arico said: »
Rips said: »
Even though a banned shield still sucks (for them) it's so easy to get another one. You can get a craft to 98 and stage 2 in a day. Hell, stage 3 if you just cut out sleep.

How are you getting that much GP?
gpdupe.lua
 Leviathan.Pve
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By Leviathan.Pve 2020-10-15 11:30:02
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Oh wow, gpdupe.lua exists!
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
No, it doesn't but I know some of you were even wondering if there's actually a lua, that's how bad it's gotten now.

The HQ exploit thread was fascinating to read, I'm glad it wasn't taken down.
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 Asura.Arico
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By Asura.Arico 2020-10-15 15:26:20
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Asura.Toralin said: »
gpdupe.lua

I *** knew it!
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By Taint 2020-10-15 15:34:49
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What were the patched hack methods? Pretty interesting stuff lol.
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By paladinepsot 2020-10-15 15:47:11
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Siren.Dekoda said: »
Hey all,
Suppose the base material loss rate is 50%, and with material loss reduction from the Escutcheon/etc that would be lowered to 30%, meaning you would lose about 1.68M on average per break. It's a T0 HQ (because of the subcraft) so it has a 1/64 (1.56%~) HQ rate, and with HQ modifiers of about 10% your highest HQ rate would be 1.56%*1.1=1.7%~. With the Escutcheon forced break, that means you're breaking about 98.3%~ of the time. The remaining 1.7%~ of the time, 75% of your HQ's will be HQ1 and the remaining 25% will be HQ2, meaning about 1.3% of the time you will HQ1 and only 0.4% of the time you will actually HQ2.

So, this is wrong. Subcraft for necks is 55, which you can easily hit T1 on, giving you a 6.25% hq rate or 6.875% with 10% hq chance boosts.

Siren.Dekoda said: »
So putting it all together
98.3%~ of the time you will lose an average of 1.68M
1.3%~ of the time you will gain 400k
0.4%~ of the time you will profit 74.4M

If you combine these to examine your average gil per synth:
(.983)*(-1.68)+(.013)*(.4)+(.004)*(74.4)= -1.35M, meaning you'll never be making money. With a .4% HQ2 rate, you will have lost about 300M by the time you actually make and sell the +2 charm.

Remath:
93.1% you lose 1.68m
5.2% you gain 400k
1.7% you gain 74.4m

Single synths net you a loss of 278,480 gil at that rate, not 1.35M. The difference in profitability here is in the price you can acquire materials. Dark matter is currently 550k/ea which means at that price instead of the ones stated you're actually at +600k~ish per synth.
 Asura.Arico
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By Asura.Arico 2020-10-15 19:34:02
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Taint said: »
What were the patched hack methods? Pretty interesting stuff lol.

Packets were involved.
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By Masunasu 2020-10-15 19:43:34
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You can intercept whether a synth is Fail/NQ/HQ before the actual synth complete, Battlemod users probably notice this when they synth normally or when they target someone who is synthing. This is limited to whether it's an HQ but not whether its HQ1/2/3, so you'd still end up with a handful of +1's if going after SU5/necks, obviously still very helpful.

One method I heard of was injecting a packet to switch mog house floors once you confirmed a Fail/NQ, however I'm not sure if this was legitimate, it made sense at least. I assume other avenues were similar in sending a packet to start an action the client wasn't expecting while synth locked, and in those cases it decided to give you back materials instead of being a full break like it would be if you synthed while zoning on airship/boat for instance.