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Coronavirus Death Toll Estimation USA
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Coronavirus death toll estimation USA
kireek said: » Common sense time? 120,914 deaths 1,935,646 infected (this is blatantly inaccurate because it is based purely on people who have been TESTED only) The actual number of infected could be 10-20 times as many (many are A-symptomatic), so when you then do that calculation you will get a totally different final number. Making up numbers (ie, 10-20) does not seem like common sense at all. Besides, of the 45,000,000 infected in the 2017-2018 flu season, how many more went unreported due to being asymptomatic or not going to the doctor at all? Some just stick it out, and of the times that I've gotten the flu, I've never gone to a doctor. The current reported numbers are all we have. While they may not be 100% accurate, projecting misleading information through guestimations and assumptions is far worse.
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kireek said: » If a nation does zero testing and instead just classifies based on deaths, then they will have a 100% death rate. Not sure what you are getting at, but in both cases testing is and was being done. kireek said: » I don't see the point arguing, you know I'm right about the numbers. Well, I was basing my calculations on factually reported numbers rather than guestimations and assumptions. How would the latter make one right?
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kireek said: » I'm not wrong about DirectX, I know exactly the game he plays. Also, for your argument: Common sense time? 120,914 deaths 1,935,646 infected (this is blatantly inaccurate because it is based purely on people who have been TESTED only) The actual number of infected could be 10-20 times as many (many are A-symptomatic), so when you then do that calculation you will get a totally different final number. Not that it matters, the entire world is in lockdown anyway and the medical specialists / leaders are going to be the ones making the decisions no matter what any of us think. It's out of our hands about whether we want to carry on life as normal, because we can't even if we want to. Most infections are going to be asymptomatic as the body quickly fights it off before the virus has replicated enough to cause symptoms. The only sign is they feel kinda bad for a day or two and then all is better. When a persons body doesn't immediately fight it off, then they'll start having the harsher symptoms and end up seeing a doctor and getting tested. NYC death toll jumps by 3,700 after uncounted fatalities are added The city now has more than 10,000 deaths. Politico Quote: ... In a new count released Tuesday, 3,778 more deaths were added to the rolls — driving up the previously recorded total of 6,589 by more than half. Now, the city records 10,367 deaths related to the virus. Previously, the city had not counted people who died at home without getting tested for the coronavirus, or who died in nursing homes or at hospitals, but did not have a confirmed positive test result. Mayor Bill de Blasio admitted last week that the true number of deaths was far higher than the official tally, and said the city would start including presumed coronavirus cases in its data. The latest statistics include probable coronavirus deaths through Monday. And even the new statistics may understate the death toll. Probable deaths were recorded as people who did not have a positive lab test for Covid-19, but did have Covid-19 or something similar listed as the cause of death on their death certificate.... DirectX said: » Would it have been the government or medical professionals that made that call? Depends. Conservatives: those pesky Democrats are doing this! Democrats: those heroes of the medical community are making this decision Everyone else: both ya'll need to sit down, shut up, and mind ya own business, bunch of douchebags.
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Trumpists Urging People to Leave Their Homes to Own the Libs
There is a growing resistance on the right that threatens to add additional stress to a political system already nearing the breaking point. The Daily Beast Yep, catching the 'rona and dying is SURE to own the libs.... While I wouldn't mind if fewer people voted Republican, dying is not the way to accomplish anything. Garuda.Chanti said: » Trumpists Urging People to Leave Their Homes to Own the Libs There is a growing resistance on the right that threatens to add additional stress to a political system already nearing the breaking point. The Daily Beast Yep, catching the 'rona and dying is SURE to own the libs.... While I wouldn't mind if fewer people voted Republican, dying is not the way to accomplish anything. Sad reality is it's the only way to accomplish anything. They ca't be negotiated with. They can't be educated. They can't be exiled. They can't have their right to vote taken away. So what option do you have. Garuda.Chanti said: » Trumpists Urging People to Leave Their Homes to Own the Libs There is a growing resistance on the right that threatens to add additional stress to a political system already nearing the breaking point. The Daily Beast Yep, catching the 'rona and dying is SURE to own the libs.... While I wouldn't mind if fewer people voted Republican, dying is not the way to accomplish anything. Not only is he risking the lives of his own fans, but once they defy the stay-at-home orders and venture out they are also risking other lives as well, specifically the essential workers vital to our healthcare and food establishments. kireek said: » If you hate them so much you can all have parties when they die right? To suggest celebration over another's death is just sad.
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DirectX said: » I revise my estimate to 36,000! I think you're a little slim there bud. As of this post, according to Worldometer: Total cases: 644,348 Total deaths: 48,708 Now, if you look at the total of cases that are "closed" you have: Closed: 77,262 Recovered: 48,708 (63%) Dead: 28,554 (37%) Apply that rate of death to the current cases and you have 238,408 dead. This is going to fluctuate depending upon which governor opens up which state and lifts restrictions. Also, rate of death has decreased in the last 24 hours by 4%, so as our ability to treat goes up, the rate will decrease. I give an estimate of 200,000 +/- 50k depending upon what policies are put in place over the next couple of weeks. DirectX said: » kireek said: » If you hate them so much you can all have parties when they die right? Alternatively they will be just fine, which is what you're really worried about. I know you're making a joke but that whole comparing it to the flu is one of the most irksome attempts to find "truth in comfort" mental gymnastics. Flu in the US had 35M cases in 2018-19' and 34k deaths. That's a year. 600k cases in the US at 3.5 months and is already at 28k deaths. 8.5 months to go and people want to act like they're comparable.
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kireek said: » I think a better study should be why New York has so many dead and infected people. well over 10 times as many as any other state (even ones with far higher populations). This isn't Trumps fault or it would be universal to all similar states, this is one states fault and I guarantee you the dems will oppose anyone looking into why. New York has 8.3 million people living in 302 square miles. 27,483 people per square mile Texas has 29 million people living in 268,597 square miles. 107 people per square mile California has 39.5 million people living in 163,696 square miles. 241 people per square mile. That would be why. kireek said: » There are many other states with heavily impacted cities, not only in the US but around the world. The death counts are massive in this one place, 10 times as many. There is something else that caused that. So you're saying population density isn't a factor in a highly communicable disease? I honestly, again, can't tell if you're just being a crappy shitposting troll or honestly dense? I'm not trying to attack you as a person, but your rebuttals have made little sense tonight. Are you feeling ok buddy?
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