Was There A Crafting Change?

Gil printer broken? Better call tech support.

Lets give him credit for that.

What do you mean patch due to the sphere mules? I have noticed a significant drop in the number of spheres for sale on Fenrir. Did something happen?

sure, kudos to him... but part of me would have prefered to see a perfect recovery.

Same. I live for telling people they're full of ***when talking about stats on the internet. Can't in this case!

I have really good luck crafting abj. synths on Lightsday.

I have no statistics or research to back my claims, I simply know when I craft them on Lightsday, no matter the moon phase, I HQ a bunch of ***.

If this somehow bothers some people because some guy who worked for SE said it means nothing, suck it, I don't care. Going to keep crafting with my good luck on Lightsday.

Now go do your stupid DI crap for an hour or more til your heads explode.

What direction do you face?

Up yer butt.

Packets.

Honestly I've never understood when someone posts "I got zero T0s from 300 synths" and is shocked.

I'm a musician, I'm a repairman of musical instruments, and a private bassoon teacher/bassoon reed maker. The most complex mathematics I do any more is measurements and comparisons for different reed models regarding dimensions and interior volume of a reed. And that's a rarity in my field; most do it "by feel" built around just general measurements. I'm not claiming any expertise in true mathematics.

But I did learn enough through my years in high school and college physics and mathematics (I was the exceedingly rare "music performance major with a minor in physics") to where I respect that true accurate probabilities need very large numbers with every variable possible represented, while introducing any possible controls available to clarify results. I've never thought that anyone desiring to find the "HQ code" could get an answer by simply measuring their own crafting numbers. I've always seen it as requiring the results of many different independent players, crossing different crafts, to try and see some amazing hidden code that might become the crafting Rosetta Stone, if one even exists (if a code even exists).

It just seemed short-sighted to use only one person's data. Both from a sheer numbers standpoint and from a desire to understand all possible variables.

...but all this is likely completely unnecessary if you believe it truly is just a raw probability run through an RNG process each time you craft, and its just a matter of numbers. If you get 5 HQs out of 150, then 0 out of 300, its probably best to look at it as 5 of 450....yes below the average, but not amazingly below average. But if you had to personally put down the gil for 300 attempts...I bet it does hurt like hell! Outside of trying for some personally signed "bucket list" goals, I don't really craft any more, and certainly not for profit (only a shield capable of making spheres, but never started with focuser)

Now if 30 people all have gone 0 for 300 in the same timeframe each repeating the same T0 synth (same for each individual crafter, say everyone picks a lv116/70sub craft for simplicity and repeats 300 times), or even simpler- 30 crafters across different servers of the same guild, same gear, same times blocked out to craft (same literal time, so the PST crafters may do it at noon while the EST crafters are also active at 3pm), all doing the same craft went a collective 0 for 9000 (maybe even OVER 9000!) on a single item....then it might be interesting to me.

Please! all those more inclined to be actively using mathematics in their daily lives at a higher level than I do I'd love some real examples if I'm completely off, because as stated, I'm far from that! And I'm always intrigued with how one would even approach accurate testing of trying to find a "special pattern" outside of just pure percentages and tiers, or how one could accurately say a change had been made.

How does it work exactly with all the gear with +%HQ chance. I always thought it's straight up additive and you actually have like several % HQ rate (like 7-8% with food, shield etc.) even at T0 synth (but you also need to be lucky to get HQ2). So I thought HQ on necks would be more like 1/15 or something like that (while HQ2 being ~20% of those HQ). That sounds more realistic to me. If you really get HQ2 statistically only 1 per 335 synth, then none would sell that for 90M I think (when afaik it breaks a lot too and you lose mats), but I'm probably wrong.

That being said I dont believe it's 1/64 either, because that's suppose to be basic value, without any +% HQ at all.

The testing i remember is the one on BG when the Coconut Rusk was tested (suposelly +3% HQ rate).

Results were that anyone can guess. Difference within some error margin meaning those improvements are barely noticeable.

Now what i think after reading those results, i would guess the effect should be multiplicative of your base sucess and not a direct add to your chances, what would be clearly noticeable.

My own experience, while i dont record results (but i should) while doing shield RoE quests, what means some large amount of crafts, i just grab the exact amount of ingredients basing the BG odds and add coconut plus the 2 HQ+ rings resulting in theory +5% HQ sucess. The reality though, is that i hit the obj when im almost running out of mats.

It's +3, not +3%.
As such I think of it more like Geomancy+ or all songs+
Some recipes will see only a minor change (indi-haste), while others will see an insane boost (mage's ballad).

You have no HQs.

Meanwhile, Meowmew of Odin has 40 Rostams in his bazaar...

While i was doing my craft quests, i noticed addons like battlemod imediately gives the result of a synth (break, Nq, Hq) but if you have the menu open you can see the mats are just consumed near the end of a synth.

Maybe there is a flaw that can be explored on this mechanism? If dudes managed to find a dupe exchanging items to npc, maybe they can do something similar to crafts.

They did an excellent job getting rid of all those duped medals, boy I tell ya what.

They still did way more than you kept preaching that they would.. so..

You're still on about what is an incredibly small amount of medals relative to the game's economy. If you choose to believe there are hundreds of thousands out there, nobody can prove you wrong because none of us have a list of folks' inventories, so it's self-fulfilling. The only person who appears to actually have any is Nqftw(and it's still not an amount that'd be impossible to make from event, if you had 18 active accounts).

On an average day, Nqftw makes less from medals than one alliance of 18 makes from sparks, and he does it within the economy instead of by injecting more gil. Yea, he should be banned(prolly everyone reading this ought to throw a task force report), but you don't know how many medals he actually has and even if it was a colossal amount the impact is not that big.

There are at least 8-10 of those sparks alliances, but because you don't personally see their gil you want to cry about a few medals.

Meh I know (of) all the spark farmers. Really not a big deal, they're just taking advantage of squares stupidity.

Thin, but discernible line between that and duping.

As soon as nqftw sells all his medals (4000? so far), then the next mule will start selling, and the next, and the next. It's literally impossible for there to still be a hundred of each medal on the house, they should've all been eaten by shields by now. (66.741 sold/day) 66 medals can't be obtained every day.

Far as I'm concerned it's all or nothing. 1 Medal is a bannable offense, you got mother *** out here STILL holding ten thousand each.

You know, for what it's worth the price of beastman's medals is still 1.6 mil and kindred's is still 2.4. Even if there is market flooding the prices haven't tanked by all THAT much. Alexandrites, stalwarts, vagary mats, abyssea shards and void components, mars orb shout prices, and literally everything else haven't budged an inch. For the average player things remain unchanged. So in the end a few people made out like bandits from the exploit. Sure it sucks, but it also isn't impacting those of us who were out of the loop by much. I can still farm just as effectively as before, and my gameplay experience is pretty much the same. For all the doomsaying you do eiryl, the world isn't ending. The experience for those of us who just play the game for the sake of enjoying ourselves and spending time on the characters we've worked to build up remains unchanged. How many people even still care anymore?

Maybe as far as legitimacy is concerned, but the sparks have much more impact on the game's economy, and lock down camps to boot.


You choose to believe there will be a next mule, and a next, and so on. This isn't based on evidence, but on your own attitude and negativity. If you believe this to be the case, raise a stink about it with SE. Point out Nqftw is selling huge amounts of duped medals. Embarass them about it and they have to do something, they are clearly already not happy it happened in the first place. (This is all predicated on there actually being medals, and those being duped in the first place, which is entirely unsubstantiated.)

This is still absolutely not true. If 30 groups actively do dyna every 3 days, you'd be looking at more than 66 medals a day. How many people does asura have? I'd bet there are at least 5 shout groups alone daily.

Don't forget how much you can abuse the statue crusher event. 18 accounts + 5 $1 mules per char. 3 chars clear the zone, other 15 leech. Cycle 6x. Repeat throughout event. That's 3000 of each medal in a month. I have no proof anyone did this, but it's certainly not unreasonable for a RMT to burn some mules to 99 and get RoV done for that kind of reward(never mind that they can also be used for omen crystals).

Regular players doing statue crusher account for quite a few medals, too.

How many more new accounts selling stacks of medals does there need to be before it's "evidence" nqftw is not the first. And not the last.

@Celebrindal: This is what I mean by a form of music SYNESTHESIA:

A maestro would be able to hear when an instrument in a large orchestra is off tune without the need of an electronic tuner. This out of tune anomaly feels physically irritating to the maestro, where everyone else hears what sounds perfect to them.

The mathematically inclined see luck as totally random in need of a large sampling to get "true" percentages. I'm more musically inclined and see/hear luck differently in stanza permutations.

As a 13 year old college student, I used to study random number generation and various formula and seeding principles. The chains of numerical data generated by the random formula to the right of the decimal point is supposed to be varied with a good random formula and number seed. However, sometimes the formula hits snags where chains of numbers have a repetitive pattern. You can't see the pattern of repetitiveness unless you stand far enough away to group numerical chains into matrices instead of a long string.

Sometimes when synthing or farming items, you hit a block (matrix) of luck or bad luck on the part of a randomly generated chain of numbers. If you see that happening, sometimes its best to stop and try again later if you are hitting a chain of bad numerical luck. Bad luck and good luck do indeed happen in block matrices when they aren't happening randomly as the math formula intended. Sometimes it's the formula itself, sometimes it's the way the formula is seeded that causes these anomalies.

Sum people with who defy probability might just be better at subconsciously processing varying levels of patterns in a data stream and conduct themselves accordingly.

It's like an ancient Hawaiian navigator who crosses the Pacific Ocean to find undiscovered islands. She does not have modern instruments to measure weather and wave patterns. However, she can feel the roll of the ocean; see the patterns of rippling caused by certain schools of fish and their predators; smell the acidity of the sea breeze to point her in the right direction. This is why I love fishing in game. Reminds me of traveling between islands with my Hawaiian grandfather on his catamaran.

holy delusion, batman

nobody would reseed or use a new instance of their generator every kill/synth.. the amount of things it constantly has to be used for makes any sort of prediction theory ridiculous because you don't have your own RNG generating your own string of results.. it's getting mixed with everything else going on in that (zone/server/however they scope it)

even if they did, there's nothing to 'process', subconsciously or otherwise, you may as well get your essential oils out and a positive energy crystal to go with them

this is pure observation bias and from someone who claims such a level of intelligence it's amazing you can't see it

Listen closely from ~6-8 mins. FFXI crafting explained.

I think this is what the kids call a big oof.

Honestly, imo there isn’t really any rhyme or reason to crafting other than hit the button and pray. My friend made 4 su5’s in ~25 rolls and I went 92 god damn rolls before I made one (made 8 su4’s before I finally hit one). I’ve gone 0/48 on necks, 0/35 next session, then the session after made 4 +2’s in ~24 rolls. ***makes no sense sometimes, and when you’re having bad streak they’re bad bad, and when it’s good it’s great. Some days it feels like no matter how much gil you throw at it you’re not going to hit, and some days it rains

I had an associates degree in mechanical engineering from MIT at age 12 and I can say with 95% confidence that within the parameters of the given problem, the statistical anomalies that many of you are hitherto speaking of should therefore be deemed as a constant within the given matrix. The only unknown variable at this time is how the constant within that matrix is affected by the totality of the whole, not just the past and present participles.

Just something to think about.