Random Politics & Religion #01

Everyone, well I guess its just Saevel and his minions, keeps repeating this fantasy. Donald Trump is going to need a hell of a lot more than "Vote for me because she is just like Obama" to win the Presidency. Kasich might be able to pull that off, but not Trump. He is going to have convince people why he would be a GOOD President, and he hasn't even come close.

Their chosen one is Cruz, he's only playing the "hard line christian" angle to get the core GoP support. Normally this would win him the election but Trump pulled support from an entire population segment that normally doesn't participate or vote. If they are going to vote this fall they will vote for him.




Wrong year for that, Democrats have a huge disadvantage right now due to them currently controlling the executive branch. With rare exception of a one or three term president, the election goes eight years democrat -> eight years republican -> eight years democrat / ect. Now if Hillary was a senator or just not involved, she could stand up and champion herself as something "other then Obama". Would still have a slight disadvantage due to affiliation with Democrats but she wouldn't be connected to the unpopular (outgoing Presidents are almost always unpopular) administration. The very administration that's the election is changing.

Gotta run to lunch but it's going to be a hilarious election as people everywhere lose their collective ***. Also Trump wouldn't be a powerless executive, dude has far to many connections and political clout. Remember before this election Trump was one of the people who choose the next President, Senator and Governor. Him becoming President is effectively a demotion.

This is the first time I have heard anyone say Cruz is the chosen one of the establishment. They hate Ted Cruz, a career divider, he has picked up only a few endorsements from sitting Congressman and only once Rubio dropped out. He has spent his entire campaign bashing the Washington establishment, every time he wins a state he gets out there with "You can hear them shaking in fear in Washington, they are afraid of me." Rubio was their "chosen one."


Recent history is pretty sketchy on this, HW won a third consecutive term for the GOP, and Al Gore won the popular vote in 2000. Recent history also paints a bleak picture for the GOP when it comes to winning popular votes, having lost 5 of the last 6.

Recent history also says that your theory of outgoing Presidents being unpopular is wrong. Bill Clinton's last week in office was at 66% approve, he spent nearly all of 1997, '98, '99 and 2000 over 55%, most of the time over 60%. Clinton was very popular. HW Bush was also in the 50's and 60's for most of his final years, Reagan in the 50's. Its only W that was historically awful. Obama has gone over 50% this year (and remains there), so this theory that he is hugely unpopular has only ever been true amongst conservatives.

I dunno about that. It is really hard to get even the leftists on this site to ever go to bat for anything Obama does.

Not only is that not even remotely true, its not indicative of anything relative to the entire country.

Virtually all outgoing Presidents are unpopular, it's not their fault it's just people associate all the wrongs and bad feelings in the previous years with the dude at the top. The Democrats did that to Bush and now the Republicans are going to do that to Obama.

The thing to remember is, in virtually all scenarios

Democrats vote Democrat, even if it's a potato. They would never vote for the enemy team.

Republicans vote Republican, even if it's a potato. They would never vote for the enemy team.

So the popularity of a candidate among their own party is only useful in so much as encouraging those party members to get off their *** and go to the voting booth. What is important is how much a candidate speaks to the moderate swing voters. And don't "moderate" in the sense of "I moderately hate the Republicans" or "I moderately hate the Democrats", I mean individuals who don't view either party as the "good guys" or "bad guys" and frequently switch who they are voting for. Most are disenfranchised and don't believe the political system works, don't think their vote counts and thus they don't even participate. When called about a poll they hang up, when asked to attend a primary they just stay home and when the election comes they just ignore it and go about their business.

Trump's primary support base is that disenfranchised voter category. He says to them "*** the established political parties, they don't matter to me, I see you, I know you, I recognize you exist and I'm here to support you". Vote for me and I'll make you matter". That has caused a huge swell in support from a category everyone in the established political system though was safely "non-consequential". This has scared the ***out of these people, if they can't control this population then they can't control who gets elected to anything, meaning they can no longer control the system they built.

I've been watching this whole thing unfold for awhile, it's pretty entertaining.

List a few maybe?

Pointless statistic. I can point out that since Abraham Lincoln there have been 18 Republican presidents and 10 (11 if you count Grover Cleveland twice) Democrat presidents. I could have pointed out how bleak the outlook was for Grover Cleveland when 4 Republican presidents preceded him. None of that means squat, especially when it's an extrapolation of limited data that is cautiously plucked to try and make a point.


More selective statistics. "Hugely unpopular" is subjective, especially when you're comparing George W. Bush (49.4% average approval rating) to Barack Obama (~47% average approval rating). Yeah, there's a lot of tricky context behind those numbers, but Obama's average is still a full 6% behind the average for all U.S. presidents. Him starting in the high 60s for approval rating and then dropping after a year to the 40s for practically the rest of his presidency may not make him "hugely unpopular", but it sure isn't something to brag about.

You use the popularity going in compared to leaving. Even Clinton was effected by that and he was a very popular candidate that didn't have anything disastrous happen during his tenure. That popularity didn't save the Presidency from being turned over to the Republicans.

Whats really funny is that dude didn't even read my post.


He then goes on to mention a three term President. Sitting Presidents tend to have a large advantage during reelection. If Obama could run again he would be very difficult to beat, even if his current administration is unpopular. That advantage does not extend to other members of the party or administration.

Just because you don't like recent history doesn't make it pointless. Its not selective stats, its recent history. Saevel said something, I countered it with recent stats. There is no set pattern of 8 years one party, 8 years the other.
You can try to hang on to Bush's average rating for his entire tenure if you want to, but it doesn't change the fact that his last year sums up his Presidency. 34% for the year and 22% in his last week, the guy was loathed and is still persona non grata and it has nothing to do with the Dems. Think he will make an appearance at the convention this year? I don't. He wasn't invited to the last two.
Bush is the only recent President that fits Saevel's narrative of "Outgoing President's are always unpopular." Clinton was very popular, HW was well regarded and still is, Reagan was similar to Obama's numbers. You have to go back 40+ years just to find a few.

Understatement!

I'm pretty sure that all of us have been watching this whole thing for awhile and all of us have been entertained.

Jimmy Carter left office less than 40 years ago. HW had an approval rating drop to 29 in 1992. Although it went up right at the end, he was still basically an "outgoing president" at his low point. I wouldn't say they're always unpopular like Saevel did, but it's not uncommon.

I figured one of you would bring up Carter, there is a streak there of LBJ, Nixon, Ford, and Carter, even tho LBJ and Ford aren't that bad, and history has really softened on LBJ. But like I said, 40 years. Oh my bad, 36.

Toss in some 8 year terms and 36yrs is not that long. But you know that, why are you being obtuse?

Lol, I'm not being obtuse at all, I asked Saevel to tell us who he is talking about when he says virtually all outgoing Presidents are unpopular when they leave office, and so far I've gotten nothing. He has made the claim in 3 different posts but he hasn't been able to tell us who he is referring to.

adverb
1.
for the most part; almost wholly; just about:

He isn't wrong... So I ask again.. Why are you being obtuse?

By your definition he is completely wrong. Excluding JFK, 6 of the last 9 Presidents have left office with above 50% approval, some of them well above. If you follow his formula of comparing them coming in against going out, all of those guys do very well (as in, they leave more popular than they come in) except for LBJ (for fairly obvious reasons, coming in after the assassination of an incredibly popular President), and Ford. I'm not sure what stat Saevel is using to base his claims on, but its not a good one. Its probably just his perception.

So 6 of the last 9...
And HW, ekking out approval just before his end is a sad state of affairs for you in this argument considering he didn't win reelection.

So you are left with 3 of the last 9..

Tennessee wants to make the bible an official state book

I have several foreign bank accounts (broker accounts to be precise).

Is that enough to earn a forum-wide ban? Or am I the first to experience that P&R ban?

i will be the first to be p&r thread banned!

I've been to TN, no surprise here.

bible belt unofficial capital lol

Unfortunately the 8 state rule inserted in the GOP's 2012 convention is still in place. Meaning that Kasich might not be on the first ballot at this year's convention.

I heard that rule doesn't take effect until after this primary season, but I could be wrong.

so says this guy.

Paywall.

Want to take a bet that it's one or two legislators tossing out a hallow gesture knowing it won't get passed but will shine a good light on them with Evangelicals?

Mmmm...Tasty internet fodder that will never come into fruition.

Uh? Strange I sure didn't pay even a ball of dust to read that.