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Random Politics & Religion #00
By fonewear 2015-05-05 13:27:46
The evidence is anecdotal at best. If being rational and not jumping to conclusions is a mark against my record, then each mark is a badge of honor.
But I have a jump to conclusion mat !
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Leviathan.Chaosx
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By Leviathan.Chaosx 2015-05-05 13:28:54
Surprisingly, it seems that you didn't actually read the article thoroughly.
Quote: This devilish twist of evidence surely leads to a further conclusion—that perhaps in the interests of levelling the playing field, bedtime stories should also be restricted. In Swift’s mind this is where the evaluation of familial relationship goods goes up a notch.
‘You have to allow parents to engage in bedtime stories activities, in fact we encourage them because those are the kinds of interactions between parents and children that do indeed foster and produce these [desired] familial relationship goods.’
Swift makes it clear that although both elite schooling and bedtime stories might both skew the family game, restricting the former would not interfere with the creation of the special loving bond that families give rise to. Taking the books away is another story.
‘We could prevent elite private schooling without any real hit to healthy family relationships, whereas if we say that you can’t read bedtime stories to your kids because it’s not fair that some kids get them and others don’t, then that would be too big a hit at the core of family life.’
It does bring up an interesting concept, though. There is this idea that the only way to create equality is to make everyone equally miserable, because it's far easier than making everyone equally happy. Why buoy up the disadvantaged when you can just hack at the knees of the elite? Welcome to Communism.
Bahamut.Milamber
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By Bahamut.Milamber 2015-05-05 13:29:36
but I think it's safe to say that Portugal isn't exactly the most fitting control group. Why?
You do understand the concept of a control group, right? And you do realize that things that work in one country don't work in others? Any factor that differentiates the control group from the rest is a lurking variable, and there are tons in this case. I didn't say it wouldn't work, I just think it's stupid to assume it would just because it worked in a different country. So, why wouldn't Portugal be a fitting control group?
Am I the only one thinking like a scientist here? Look up the freaking scientific method and how experiments are designed. You cannot make generalizations about the outcome of an experiment and extrapolate it to unrelated groups unless they accurately match the control group. GDP, population, religious influences, ethnicity, drug preference, drug availability, healthcare costs (or lack thereof), healthcare quality, media influences, etc. can all play a role. Holy crap, do I need to go on?
It isn't all factors that need to accurately match. Only factors which have a been determined to have a statistically significant impact matter.
You can also do a comparison for the US, against the US, when looking at the prohibition of alcohol, and crime.
In a study of more than 30 major U.S. cities during the Prohibition years of 1920 and 1921, the number of crimes increased by 24%. Additionally, theft and burglaries increased by 9%, homicides by 12.7%, assaults and battery rose by 13%, drug addiction by 44.6%, and police department costs rose by 11.4%.
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By Lakshmi.Sparthosx 2015-05-05 13:30:34
COMMUNISM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I see that and play FASCISM in attack mode. I draw two cards and end my turn. Your move.
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By fonewear 2015-05-05 13:30:38
Surprisingly, it seems that you didn't actually read the article thoroughly.
Quote: This devilish twist of evidence surely leads to a further conclusion—that perhaps in the interests of levelling the playing field, bedtime stories should also be restricted. In Swift’s mind this is where the evaluation of familial relationship goods goes up a notch.
‘You have to allow parents to engage in bedtime stories activities, in fact we encourage them because those are the kinds of interactions between parents and children that do indeed foster and produce these [desired] familial relationship goods.’
Swift makes it clear that although both elite schooling and bedtime stories might both skew the family game, restricting the former would not interfere with the creation of the special loving bond that families give rise to. Taking the books away is another story.
‘We could prevent elite private schooling without any real hit to healthy family relationships, whereas if we say that you can’t read bedtime stories to your kids because it’s not fair that some kids get them and others don’t, then that would be too big a hit at the core of family life.’
It does bring up an interesting concept, though. There is this idea that the only way to create equality is to make everyone equally miserable, because it's far easier than making everyone equally happy. Why buoy up the disadvantaged when you can just hack at the knees of the elite? Welcome to Communism.
At least you can take comfort in those rich fat cats aren't rich anymore !
Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2015-05-05 13:34:56
It isn't all factors that need to accurately match. Only factors which have a been determined to have a statistically significant impact matter.
You can also do a comparison for the US, against the US, when looking at the prohibition of alcohol, and crime.
Yes, and how does one determine that is has a statistically significant impact? Oh yeah, you'd have to actually do a statistical analysis on every single factor. Also, alcohol isn't the same as hard drugs. You guys are getting way too defensive over someone being reasonably skeptical, frick. I'm sorry I don't align myself with your views 100% without undeniable proof. Sheesh.
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By fonewear 2015-05-05 13:36:00
Who knew people cared about Portugal !
Bahamut.Kara
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By Bahamut.Kara 2015-05-05 13:36:33
It isn't all factors that need to accurately match. Only factors which have a been determined to have a statistically significant impact matter.
You can also do a comparison for the US, against the US, when looking at the prohibition of alcohol, and crime.
Yes, and how does one determine that is has a statistically significant impact? Oh yeah, you'd have to actually do a statistical analysis on every single factor. Also, alcohol isn't the same as hard drugs. You guys are getting way too defensive over someone being reasonably skeptical, frick. I'm sorry I don't align myself with your views 100% without undeniable proof. Sheesh. The only person I see getting defensive is you when asked by three different people to explain why it's obviously not a good control group.
but I think it's safe to say that Portugal isn't exactly the most fitting control group.
You've, by the way, not answered that question. Merely said factors need to be examined.
Edited in exact wording
By fonewear 2015-05-05 13:37:10
I'm so defensive I can't even finish this sent...
By fonewear 2015-05-05 13:38:04
I bet we would have defensive arguments about how to describe the taste of water !
Leviathan.Chaosx
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By Leviathan.Chaosx 2015-05-05 13:38:39
Isn't Portugal somewhere around 25% unemployment and stuff.
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By Shiva.Onorgul 2015-05-05 13:39:34
Also, alcohol isn't the same as hard drugs. How so?
By fonewear 2015-05-05 13:39:40
Isn't Portugal somewhere around 25% unemployment and stuff.
If only I cared enough to wikipedia it ! But I don't think their economic situation is good...
By fonewear 2015-05-05 13:40:39
Here is the drug policy:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drug_policy_of_Portugal#Laws_and_regulations
Amount limits of possession for personal consumption are:[22]
25 g Cannabis (herb)
5 g Hashish
2.5 g Cannabis Oil
0.5 g Pure THC
500 µg LSD
1 g MDMA
2 g Cocaine (Hydrochloride)
0.3 g Cocaine (Benzoylecgonine)
1 g Heroin
1 g Methadone
2 g Morphine
10 g Opium
1 g Amphetamine
0.1 g PCP
Leviathan.Chaosx
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By Leviathan.Chaosx 2015-05-05 13:43:01
Ah their unemployment is only ~13.5% it's their 132.62% debt to GDP ratio that's about to crush them.
As a side note I see the U.S. is back to over 100% debt to GDP again. For a month almost they had it down to 98-99%. Back up to 104.77% now.
By fonewear 2015-05-05 13:45:19
Don't worry some other country will bail out Portugal !
Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2015-05-05 13:46:38
Also, alcohol isn't the same as hard drugs. How so? Take a case of booze to a drug dealer who paid for cocaine and find out.
I'm done with you guys for now. If you can't even grasp the simple concept of a control group, there is no hope from here.
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Bahamut.Milamber
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By Bahamut.Milamber 2015-05-05 13:46:57
Quote: Swift in particular has been conflicted for some time over the curious situation that arises when a parent wants to do the best for her child but in the process makes the playing field for others even more lopsided.
‘I got interested in this question because I was interested in equality of opportunity,’ he says.
‘I had done some work on social mobility and the evidence is overwhelmingly that the reason why children born to different families have very different chances in life is because of what happens in those families.’ Swift is conflicted about parents who in doing things for their children unbalance the game for others and contribute to an unequal balance of opportunity. Or, full context:
Quote: The power of the family to tilt equality hasn’t gone unnoticed, and academics and public commentators have been blowing the whistle for some time. Now, philosophers Adam Swift and Harry Brighouse have felt compelled to conduct a cool reassessment.
Swift in particular has been conflicted for some time over the curious situation that arises when a parent wants to do the best for her child but in the process makes the playing field for others even more lopsided.
‘I got interested in this question because I was interested in equality of opportunity,’ he says.
‘I had done some work on social mobility and the evidence is overwhelmingly that the reason why children born to different families have very different chances in life is because of what happens in those families.’
Once he got thinking, Swift could see that the issue stretches well beyond the fact that some families can afford private schooling, nannies, tutors, and houses in good suburbs. Functional family interactions—from going to the cricket to reading bedtime stories—form a largely unseen but palpable fault line between families. The consequence is a gap in social mobility and equality that can last for generations. Quote: In the end Swift agrees that all activities will cause some sort of imbalance—from joining faith communities to playing Saturday cricket—and it’s for this reason that a theory of familial goods needs to be established if the family is to be defended against cries of unfairness.
‘We should accept that lots of stuff that goes on in healthy families—and that our theory defends—will confer unfair advantage,’ he says. He's pretty clear in his point that "healthy families", those reading to their kids (amongst other things) confer an unfair advantage. Yes, but you forgot the last part talking about where the focus lies; not on "healthy families" but on:
Quote: In the end Swift agrees that all activities will cause some sort of imbalance—from joining faith communities to playing Saturday cricket—and it’s for this reason that a theory of familial goods needs to be established if the family is to be defended against cries of unfairness.
‘We should accept that lots of stuff that goes on in healthy families—and that our theory defends—will confer unfair advantage,’ he says.
It’s the usual bind in ethics and moral philosophy: very often values clash and you have to make a call. For Swift and Brighouse, the line sits shy of private schooling, inheritance and other predominantly economic ways of conferring advantage.
Quote: Then, does the child have a right to be parented by her biological parents? Swift has a ready answer.
‘It’s true that in the societies in which we live, biological origins do tend to form an important part of people’s identities, but that is largely a social and cultural construction. So you could imagine societies in which the parent-child relationship could go really well even without there being this biological link.’ Finally they throw out there the idea that mom and dad don't really need to be the parents. Could the solution he's hinting at be somewhat akin to the further dissolving of parental rights so that every kids ultimately gets the same kind of opportunity social justice? Good question! Oh wait, no, that's absolute rubbish.
Quote: ‘When we talk about parents’ rights, we’re talking about the person who is parenting the child. How you got to be parenting the child is another issue. One implication of our theory is that it’s not one’s biological relation that does much work in justifying your rights with respect to how the child is parented.’
For Swift and Brighouse, our society is curiously stuck in a time warp of proprietorial rights: if you biologically produce a child you own it.
‘We think that although in practice it makes sense to parent your biological offspring, that is not the same as saying that in virtue of having produced the child the biological parent has the right to parent.’
Then, does the child have a right to be parented by her biological parents? Swift has a ready answer.
‘It’s true that in the societies in which we live, biological origins do tend to form an important part of people’s identities, but that is largely a social and cultural construction. So you could imagine societies in which the parent-child relationship could go really well even without there being this biological link.’
From this realisation arises another twist: two is not the only number.
‘Nothing in our theory assumes two parents: there might be two, there might be three, and there might be four,’ says Swift.
It’s here that the traditional notions of what constitutes the family come apart. A necessary product of the Swift and Brighouse analytical defence is the calling into question of some rigid definitions.
‘Politicians love to talk about family values, but meanwhile the family is in flux and so we wanted to go back to philosophical basics to work out what are families for and what’s so great about them and then we can start to figure out whether it matters whether you have two parents or three or one, or whether they’re heterosexual etcetera.’
For traditionalists, though, Swift provides a small concession.
‘We do want to defend the family against complete fragmentation and dissolution,’ he says. ‘If you start to think about a child having 10 parents, then that’s looking like a committee rearing a child; there aren’t any parents there at all.’
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By Shiva.Onorgul 2015-05-05 13:49:03
Also, alcohol isn't the same as hard drugs. How so? Take a case of booze to a drug dealer who paid for cocaine and find out.
I'm done with you guys for now. If you can't even grasp the simple concept of a control group, there is no hope from here. I keep asking for you to explain yourself and you activate Really Imperfect Dodge. Ok...
Valefor.Sehachan
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By Valefor.Sehachan 2015-05-05 13:54:45
I bet we would have defensive arguments about how to describe the taste of water ! Fluor-- NICE TRY, you almost got me.
Seraph.Ramyrez
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By Seraph.Ramyrez 2015-05-05 14:07:08
Also, alcohol isn't the same as hard drugs. How so? Take a case of booze to a drug dealer who paid for cocaine and find out.
I'm done with you guys for now. If you can't even grasp the simple concept of a control group, there is no hope from here.
He's speaking from an use/addiction standpoint. I would have thought that was clear. And if you think quitting drinking for a heavy alcoholic is any easier than other drugs, you're lucky that you're not familiar enough with anyone who's tried.
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By Shiva.Nikolce 2015-05-05 14:13:03
I keep asking for you to explain yourself and you activate Really Imperfect Dodge. Ok...
I think he was going more for a "past performance is no guarantee of future outcome" type deal.
something that works in colorado could completely fail in ohio because banana.
then the two sides of the argument are "Then let's try it and find out" vs. "Let's not and say we did"
Bahamut.Milamber
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By Bahamut.Milamber 2015-05-05 14:13:41
Also, alcohol isn't the same as hard drugs. How so? Take a case of booze to a drug dealer who paid for cocaine and find out.
I'm done with you guys for now. If you can't even grasp the simple concept of a control group, there is no hope from here. I'd probably start by not running my experiment on my control group, but that's just me.
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2015-05-05 14:17:38
False convictions occur on a much larger scale than .2%.
The government does not keep track of those who are pardoned.
There was a topic a few years ago that discussed this.
Some information p.6Carbuncle.Lynxblade said: » Do you think only guilty people are convicted?
99.999% of the time yeah. >_>
Since I have more numbers now from The National Registry of Exonerations, we can look at rough (seriously rough) statistics.
According to the US Department of Justice there were Quote: There were 6.98 million offenders under the supervision of the adult correctional systems at yearend 2011 This includes people who are on probation, in jail, parole, or in prison. In both state and federal custody.
In order for your statistic to be accurate for all crimes here (not just felonies) only 69.8 (70) people should be innocent, or at least exonerated.
The US (as a government entity) does not keep track of exonerations via a database, so the numbers from The National Registry of Exonerations (a joint project by two law schools) are those they have found and verified, which is 1133 at this moment from 1989. This does not include Quote: at least 1,100 convicted defendants who were cleared since 1995 in 12 “group exonerations,” that occurred after it was discovered that police officers had deliberately framed dozens or hundreds of innocent defendants, mostly for drug and gun crimes.
This does not go into the fact that most exonerations are not known or widely publicized, so there is no way to know how many occur each year. p.96
Quote: If so, why are these exonerations unknown? The fundamental reason is that there is no official method for recording exonerations. James Ochoa, for example, had his conviction vacated on motion of the Orange County, California District Attorney, and then charges were dismissed. If you examined the court records, that’s probably all you’d see. There might be no way whatever to know that it was an exoneration. Convictions are vacated for a host of more common reasons; modification of the sentence, for example. As a result, a record search would be extremely difficult even if the records were kept in one place. In fact, it’s impossible. Court records in America are scattered across 94 federal districts and several thousand county courthouses, and police records are even harder to locate.
....
Several attorneys who have obtained exonerations at this early stage have told us that it can be comparatively easy to persuade the prosecutor and the judge who tried a case to reopen it and to reverse the conviction when the trial is still fresh in their minds and before the case is taken over by other prosecutors and other judges on appeal – assuming, of course, that there is persuasive new evidence that the defendant is innocent. The hearing may be seen as a low-key process of correcting an error before it’s passed on. By the same token, they say, everybody understands that this sort of in-house error correction is supposed to remain in house. Rayshard Futrell’s appellate lawyer has told us that it would probably have been considerably more difficult to reach an agreement to release him if his case had attracted attention from the media.
So, no I think based on these numbers/facts that the 99.999% of people in jail are guilty is wrong. If you (or anyone) has time to read the document it is incredibly interesting (and has sources!).
I'm really concerned about the "family search" part. That seems entirely too invasive of a process seeing how police officers are extremely prejudiced when it comes to investigating a crime (confirmation bias). How hard would it be for someone to murder someone else, then drop some of their DNA in the area. Would only take a few weeks of facebook trolling to gather all the requires information then just wait for an opportune moment when that person would have no credible alibi.
People really should watch that video I posted earlier, I guarantee it will change your life.
Police are not the only ones guilty of confirmation bias/or feel the noble need to help put bad guys away, but also the lab techs who are running the tests. I did not realize how many instances of faulty forensic analysis (on all forensics not just DNA) have occurred (that have been found). Below are just a few of the examples from http://www.nacdl.org/NewsReleases.aspx?id=26459
Quote: Massachusetts 2013:
State chemist Sonja Farak has been accused of tampering with drug evidence, potentially affecting 60,000 samples in 34,000 cases.
2012 – Chemist Annie Dookhan has been accused of falsifying drug sample test results, forging paperwork and mixing up samples. Since then, over 200 defendants have been released and their cases have been put on hold while their lawyers challenge their convictions. Dookhan is believed to have been doing this for years.
Illinois 2011 – A former Detroit crime lab was abandoned with evidence left in the abandoned building for anyone to have access to. The lab, which closed in 2008, was investigated and it was discovered that the lab workers had been habitually sloppy and had high error rates.
New York 5/2010 – A NYPD criminalist was found to have taken shortcuts in testing drugs leading to unreliable results. The criminalist under question tested a substance for cocaine, determined it was negative and instead of retesting the sample, she marked the substance as positive for cocaine, leading all of the samples she had tested to be questioned.
Or just plain bad science on the part of the lab techs, that for some reason no one disputed.
Quote: In 1987, Roadcap explained to the jury at the rape/murder trial of Barry Laughman, that the killer's blood type "morphed" from B to A-to match Laughman's blood type-due to antibiotics the victim was taking at the time of her death. Her fantasy science stood for 16 years, until Laughman was cleared by DNA.
The National Academy of Sciences issued a report in 2009, Strengthing Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward, found that most of the science used in crime labs lacks any form of peer review or validation. Jay A. Siegel, NAS member, said "In a nutshell, these people aren't scientists. They don't know what validation is. They don't know what it means to validate a test".
As to familial DNA matching, I don't know how anyone can agree with this. This goes beyond someone who has been arrested on probable cause and into the realm of making everyone who is related to a criminal assumed to be a criminal, as the default assumption.
I'm still more concerned more about stupidity (see above :)) than malicious intent, but of course this can happen. Especially if it is crime scene tech who has the malicious intent.
Quote: In a bench trial, Nebraska Judge Randall Rehmeier found that prosecutors had proven beyond a reasonable doubt that Kofoed had planted blood from the murder victim in a car in an attempt to tie two innocent men to the crime. The men were eventually cleared and two Wisconsin residents were convicted of the murder. So, your reasoning is that a few thousands of people in a population of over 8 million prisoners (your source even showed that) were arrested based on illegal means or other mistakes. At most, 3,000. You know what 3000/8000000 equals? .000375 (or .0375%). So, still well below the extremes on a standard deviation bellchart.
Bahamut.Kara
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By Bahamut.Kara 2015-05-05 14:18:16
Also, alcohol isn't the same as hard drugs. How so? Take a case of booze to a drug dealer who paid for cocaine and find out.
I'm done with you guys for now. If you can't even grasp the simple concept of a control group, there is no hope from here.
He's speaking from an use/addiction standpoint. I would have thought that was clear. And if you think quitting drinking for a heavy alcoholic is any easier than other drugs, you're lucky that you're not familiar enough with anyone who's tried. The criminal infrastructure that was created during prohibition versus the drug war are also very similar. Along with the increase in prison population and tax burdan on citizens.
Seraph.Ramyrez
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By Seraph.Ramyrez 2015-05-05 14:19:03
something that works in colorado could completely fail in ohio because banana.
Ohio, Gateway to Midwest Depression!
Truth be told it might be an excellent place to test things out. On state scale Ohio has got to rival Portugal's unemployment/depression numbers, right? So addiction numbers should be about the same...
Seraph.Ramyrez
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By Seraph.Ramyrez 2015-05-05 14:22:45
population of over 8 million prisoners
Going to go ahead and say again that this number is needlessly high, re-asserting that if we were more serious about rehab (drug, alcohol, and vocational, with proper psychological care thrown into the mix) we'd be a lot better off in a lot of ways. As currently constituted, prison rehab programs are overbooked and provided in a quite slipshod fashion.
Lakshmi.Flavin
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By Lakshmi.Flavin 2015-05-05 14:24:39
I am of the opinion that the people that think incarcerating innocent people is ok because it's at an "acceptable" percentage or whatever they are trying to argue should be the ones that are convicted of a crime that they did not commit and let them see how they feel about it then.
Siren.Mosin
By Siren.Mosin 2015-05-05 14:29:22
I went to county jail for the weekend for just reasons about 10 years ago, & all I could think about was getting those poor *** some decent food when I was let loose on the world once again, but then I got out, & you know, you get busy & such.
the food is terrible in there.
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2015-05-05 14:34:01
population of over 8 million prisoners
Going to go ahead and say again that this number is needlessly high, re-asserting that if we were more serious about rehab (drug, alcohol, and vocational, with proper psychological care thrown into the mix) we'd be a lot better off in a lot of ways. As currently constituted, prison rehab programs are overbooked and provided in a quite slipshod fashion. Maybe we should all create a society and culture where it is not acceptable to commit a crime in the first place, instead of glorifying it (Hollywood) and pitying it (liberal mantra).
You know, make it harsher for people so they can think twice (or in some cases, three or more times) before committing a crime knowingly.
I am of the opinion that the people that think incarcerating innocent people is ok because it's at an "acceptable" percentage or whatever they are trying to argue should be the ones that are convicted of a crim that they did not commit and let them see how they feel about it then. You said it yourself, it is impossible to get a zero percent rate on incarcerating innocent people (even in Kara's source, a lot of these people were pardoned, doesn't necessary mean that they were innocent either).
But you know what, I rather live with less than 1/25th of a percent rate of error than whatever you think the rate of error is in your mind. Speaking of which, I did ask you what the rate of error is, but you refused to state it. I'm guessing it's more like 10-20%...
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