Mog Bonanza 7/14/11

160 marbles for the 3rd or 4th year in a row and about 15 rank 5's later thanks SE....................

Would love it if SE released some probabilities for this... Hard to do them yourself when you don't know that SE picking winning the numbers can't be completely random...

Real lotteries are required by law to give the probability of winning!

100 marbles guarantees a rank 4, if you got 160 marbles without winning a rank 4 than you're doing it horribly wrong.

2 rank 5s!

Letting the moogle pick all my numbers ftw :p
Also, only got marbles on 1 char this year, kinda given up XD

In b4 "doing your math wrong"

Rank 5 - 1 in 10 (0-9)
Rank 4 - 1 in 100 (00-99)
Rank 3 - 1 in 1000 (000-999)
Rank 2 - 1 in 10000 (000-9999)
Rank 1 - 1 in 100000 (00000-99999)

now that would be per marble, playing more then 1 marble increases your odds.... and being able to purchase 10 marbles per char you can Guarentee yourself at least 1 Rank 5 prize....

I uhm... Kinda forgot to buy marbles this round :(

1x rank 5 again yay D:

thx Seha.
Only got 1 rank5 on a mule and realy wanted a sea torque ;;

Meh got to many rank 5's.... D: Got one freakin rank 4 though :D go go love torque! :D

weren't we able to buy more than 10 marbles this time?

Success. Finally got Fort Torque after almost 5 years. 1/54 lol.

Thank You Based God! D:

This^ Like 0/20+

no love torque /sigh

Got two rank 4 on mules.... and BB items can't be d-boxed. Guess I'm getting Valhalla Helm and a Love Torque for when I level up thf.

You assume that SE picks the winning numbers at random.

Edit- My original thought was more along the lines of "I wonder what the REAL odds are of winning rank 1 prize"

$15.00 (for the mules) / 150 = 10 cent per marble, which was 20k each... Which means 2k gil = 1$ usd

So basically se put a price of $50/million.

If winning the big prize was 1/100,000 chance, then, to win, youd have to have 1000 characters to guarantee a rank 1 prize.

Thatd set you back $1597.50 in new accounts and mules.

IF, you did that, you would have just paid $15.97 per million, which you could probably turn a decent profit on, if you decided to sell it... Thats assuming, rank 1 gil prize was worth 100,000,000 gil.

Same luck here and same situation here serj :<

why can't you DB BB items through mules if you can DB r/ex like love torque?

It's a quest item.

ahhh ok, i get it...i thought that referred to quest rewards (like ebisu).. I dont have mules so idk, but i appreciate the clarity ^^

we are back to the tin foil hat theory again....
I like it.

Granted... it is SE i would not be suppriesd for them to take the least common Rank 1 numbers so they dont flood the game with relics/mythics/other things SE dosent really want normal people to have :P

Pretty sure that when the first Bonanza happened, they went over their criteria on picking the winning numbers. Hint: it's all random.

They find the most paranoid person [you] and then pick numbers you didn't pick.

Unless they specifically looked up YOUR numbers and were like "Ya know what? Screw this guy." its still the same odds kinda. Instead of guessing the one 5 digit number that will be randomly generated pick the one 5 digit number they decided to make win/the least people guessed/the boss' kid picked/insert theory here.

I can see how that would be frustrating IF it were true, but even so the basic idea/odds are the same: pick a 5 digit number and pray you were right.

Sounds like your own fault for buying over 100 marbles and not making sure you have 00-99 covered

I lied, the tracker entered in the numbers wrong. Only got 1 rank 4, on Serj! TURTLE EGG GO!

I remember doing the math for brute forcing a rank1, back for the first bonanza which had gil rewards that weren't based on how much the global sales totaled.

First you need more than 1000 characters, you actually need 10,000 (each holding 10 orbs will get you 100,000 orbs with every number). The price was also 1k per marble so as you can guess it cost no less than 100M gil to buy all 100,000 marbles, but you actually won in this scheme because on top of winning the rank1 (you get your 100m back), you'd subsequently win 10 rank 2s (10m x10 = 100m, so you've doubled your money), and 100 rank 3s (1m x100 = 100m, so now you've tripled it), on top of 1000 rank4s which depending on market value (behemoth hide was around 200k I believe) was anywhere from 100m to 500m. It was definitely worth it, but the money and time investment was staggering.

10,000 characters requires 625 accounts at 16 characters per account. FFXI was at its cheapest $4.99 for a start up kit, included with it a 30 day free trial, but 45 days must pass for a character to be valid for marble sales so you must at least pay for 1 month. You also have to count reactivating accounts to claim "winning characters" (every account will have at least 1 rank 4 winner, which is where the real money actually was). Additionally, characters had to be level 5 or higher.

In money alone, 625 start up packs and 1 month of full service for 16 characters, combined with 1 month of service for 1 character will cost you $28,731.25. My car didn't cost that much.

In time, assuming you can activate your POL account and register appropriate information in 5 minutes, and it takes you 25 minutes to get through character creation and grind out the first 5 levels (made much easier now, but not so much back then) per each character,) the act of simply making 10,000 characters accessible will require 253,125 minutes of time, and this is not time spent waiting for the 45 days to pass. 253,125 minutes is 4218 hours or 175 days approximately. 175 days of creating characters. 175 solid days.

Assuming you have nothing better to do (don't we all) and can bear the time burden, if we assuming you come out of it with 500M after all rank 4 sales, the actual gil-for-dollar ratio you end up earning out of the brute forcing is 17,402 gil/dollar spent, or about $57/1M.

IGE is that way ->

I spent $160 on lottery tickets and didn't win 100 million cash thanks alot <insert bandwagon SE hate here> ..........................................................................................................................................

Goddamn... Lol

I think some of you guys are taking this way too seriously lol.
It's a lottery, just pick random numbers and let the chips fall where they may. Can't win if you don't play, and there's no use fretting over odds or probability since the numbers are already announced.