Depends on timeline and administration decisions. Optimistically, maybe as low as 100k this year, 200k with retrospective analysis.
I say "administrative decisions" because no one has really articulated a viable middleground between permanent lockdown and BAU. If we do full BAU, we maybe lose ~100k people a week for a few months. If we do full lockdown, everyone that could be saved by modern medicine is saved. Treatment supposedly decreases mortality rates substantially (5-10x?)
The best strategy is probably to relax some social distancing things when our hospitals recover some capacity and ease back into it, but you are still going to see a ton of COVID deaths even if you don't overwhelm the hospitals.
I am wildly uncertain about how this administration will handle things. I think if Trump doesn't declare coronavirus over and out us back on BAU by June then he will defer to Fauci through the election and we are probably looking at the lower end of the range of current possibilities. If he decides that BAU by June is the best option for him politically, our death toll will be over a million easily. I don't think it is actually likely that he goes back to BAU, though, at least in part because he lost initiative to the states and cannot unilaterally restore it.