Was There A Crafting Change?

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was there a Crafting change?
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 Odin.Slore
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By Odin.Slore 2019-12-18 04:02:08
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Heys guys, Wondering if anyone heard about a crafting change or whatnot. Since update I cannot hit a hq. I tried about 60 synths on neck yesterday and didn't even get a +1. Yesterday and today tried to make some tathlums did about 100 synths... not one hq. I know bad luck is bad luck but this is beyond that. Not sure if they changed *** something up with shields or what not but other crafters I know on server are having same problem.

So anyone else notice anything since update?
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By Pantafernando 2019-12-18 04:25:43
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The odds for a T0 is 1/64 so youre just a bit unlucky, not severely unlucky
 Odin.Slore
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By Odin.Slore 2019-12-18 05:53:55
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Yeah I think this is more than bad luck. Neck synths are 110. Have all gear/bonus/hq rings etc and completed crafting shield. To not get a single hq1 or hq2 out of 60+ synths is beyond bad luck. The tathlums I can see they 116 synth but even that to not get a single hq out of over 100 synths is to odd. I've been making a living off thf necks and tathlums for weeks now I can't even seem to come close to a hq. I'd buy 2 stacks of mats and get maybe 2-3 hq's sometimes even more but since last week or so I can't craft a thing. I have talked to other crafters as well with shields and they report that their hq rates have plummeted as well. Just wasn't sure if SE threw some ninja update in there. I could see me just havin a bad streak but 3 other crafters as well?
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By Asura.Xanders 2019-12-18 06:13:08
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Myself and several others have noticed the same thing. HQ rates on necks have certainly dropped, but SU3 rates have floored. Lucky to get 1 items over break even from 100-150M in mats. Something has certainly changed.....
 Odin.Slore
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By Odin.Slore 2019-12-18 06:22:42
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It had to have. I have 4 friends on server all have different shields and all say hq rates have dropped to ***. Like totally unexplained. I spent 160mil between neck mats and tathlum mats over 200 synths combined between them.... not a single hq on either. Not even a hq1 on neck.
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By Ragnarok.Viking 2019-12-18 06:30:28
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SE drying marked of duped medals?
 Odin.Slore
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By Odin.Slore 2019-12-18 06:39:38
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Tathlums do not require medals and no one on odin that I know of got hit with dupe. We never had the large influx that other servers have had. There is no reasonable explanation, it just dropped to nothing.
 Odin.Slore
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By Odin.Slore 2019-12-18 06:40:50
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Look at my ah history. Was having no problem with hq's till a few days ago. Tried Moonlight rings as well I've hq'ed them tons of times. Not a single hq out of like 80 synths... this is beyond reason.
 Fenrir.Kaldaek
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By Fenrir.Kaldaek 2019-12-18 07:01:37
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I do not believe anything has changed... I record all my results and it's pretty consistent.

it's a case of the bad lucks for you sir^^
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 Lakshmi.Avereith
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By Lakshmi.Avereith 2019-12-18 08:14:40
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bad luck. I saw a ls member get 5 +2 necks in one session just 3 days ago
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By Fayona 2019-12-18 08:22:32
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Odin.Slore said: »
Tathlums do not require medals and no one on odin that I know of got hit with dupe. We never had the large influx that other servers have had. There is no reasonable explanation, it just dropped to nothing.


Lololol, People on Odin got hit big time. Some of them for the second and third time since the salvage bans. Odin Bismarck Bahamut Asura were some of the biggest offenders.
 Bismarck.Firedemon
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By Bismarck.Firedemon 2019-12-18 08:26:46
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Fayona said: »
Odin.Slore said: »
Tathlums do not require medals and no one on odin that I know of got hit with dupe. We never had the large influx that other servers have had. There is no reasonable explanation, it just dropped to nothing.


Lololol, People on Odin got hit big time. Some of them for the second and third time since the salvage bans. Odin Bismarck Bahamut Asura were some of the biggest offenders.

??
 Ragnarok.Viking
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By Ragnarok.Viking 2019-12-18 08:33:10
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I made 4 tathlums 2 days ago. Also made some +2 necks. Had a bad neck attempt earlier same day also. ***goes up and down. My theory is that hq chance follows some sort of wave pattern on top the basic numbers. Either reducing or increasing hq rate by a significant amount. Thats why u can go 0/80 1 round and then 8/50 the next round a few days later on same synth. The worst rounds like u say 0/80 or more are to big to be bad luck alone. (just my opinion and theory)
 Asura.Ladyofhonor
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By Asura.Ladyofhonor 2019-12-18 08:34:32
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Odin.Slore said: »
Look at my ah history. Was having no problem with hq's till a few days ago. Tried Moonlight rings as well I've hq'ed them tons of times. Not a single hq out of like 80 synths... this is beyond reason.

Looking at your post history it's not a huge surprise you're quick to jump to conspiracy theories. If there was a crafting bug or ninja nerf, all prices would have doubled by now and there'd be a huge clamor on the forums.
 Asura.Eiryl
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By Asura.Eiryl 2019-12-18 08:39:31
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It takes longer than there has been time for, for prices to move enough to notice.
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 Odin.Slore
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By Odin.Slore 2019-12-18 08:43:51
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Asura.Ladyofhonor said: »
Odin.Slore said: »
Look at my ah history. Was having no problem with hq's till a few days ago. Tried Moonlight rings as well I've hq'ed them tons of times. Not a single hq out of like 80 synths... this is beyond reason.

Looking at your post history it's not a huge surprise you're quick to jump to conspiracy theories. If there was a crafting bug or ninja nerf, all prices would have doubled by now and there'd be a hug clamor on the forums.

What the hell does my post history have to do with conspiracy theories? Like where in the hell did you get that? I asked about crafting.
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 Shiva.Thorny
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By Shiva.Thorny 2019-12-18 08:45:18
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GUYZ SE BUFFED RIDILL DROPRATE

...no, nothing changed. Your numbers are all well within reasonable variation.
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 Fenrir.Melphina
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By Fenrir.Melphina 2019-12-18 08:51:55
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I've actually got my own theory about how the HQ code works. Many years ago I did a bunch of testing when Eruntalon claimed to have figured out "the perfect method". No, I don't buy his claim. No, there is no way to guarantee a HQ. Yes, he was full of crap. But there has to be a mathamatical equation that drives the FFXI crafting system. And one day I found just that. This right here might look familiar to a few of you. It's called the Star of David Theorum, and it's literally the mathematical relationship that the in game elemnts must be following. It is to the very tee an eequation that gives a working functionality to the the elemental relationships

http://mathworld.wolfram.com/StarofDavidTheorem.html

Back when Motenten still played the game I brought this up with him once and he explained to me a bit about it. The star of david theorum is an advanced trigonomic formula that creates a range of possibilities. Based off the numbers input, the range is either widened or reduced. Esentially the way I see it, the in game elemental relationship between crystal and day of the week is being plugged into the formula to create said range, and then a random number is thrown in on top of it. If that random number falls within whatever the HQ range is, you get your HQ, and if not you don't.

We've seen windows where HQ's experience massive hot spots, and we've seen windows of cold spots. This explains why that occurs. There are literally certain periods of time where a synth's chances of HQ increase or decrease based on the in game factors getting plugge dinto the formula, so a synth may have a 5% HQ chance at one point in time but only a 0.5% chance another. And I'm confident there are three factors that affect whatever the current HQ range is

Element of the crystal used
Element of the current in gam eday
Time of day

Time of day equates to light and darkness. With 00:00 midnight being 100% darkness, and 12:00 noon being 100% light

Good luck ever figuring out how to abuse that though. That shits far too complex for me. I just craft when I feel like it or when I have time. But it was very interesting to find out, because it gives me a bit of insight into what is most likely going on "behind the scenes" in thegames coding. little things like that always interested me.
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 Shiva.Thorny
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By Shiva.Thorny 2019-12-18 08:54:37
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Fenrir.Melphina said: »
I've actually got my own theory about how the HQ code works. Many years ago I did a bunch of testing when Eruntalon claimed to have figured out "the perfect method". No, I don't buy his claim. No, there is no way to guarantee a HQ. Yes, he was full of crap. But there has to be a mathamatical equation that drives the FFXI crafting system. And One day i found just that. This right here might look familiar to a few of you. It's called the Star of David Theorum, and it's literally the mathematical relationship that the in game elemnts must be following. It is to the very tee an eequation that gives a working functionality to the the elemental relationships

http://mathworld.wolfram.com/StarofDavidTheorem.html

Back when Motenten still played the game I brought this up with him once and he explained to me a bit about it. The star of david theorum is an advanced trigonomic formula that creates a range of possibilities. Based off the numbers input, the range is either widened or reduced. Esentially the way I see it, the in game elemental relationship between crystal and day of the week is being plugged into the formula to create said range, and then a random number is thrown in on top of it. If that random number falls within whatever the HQ range is, you get your HQ, and if not you don't.

We've seen windows where HQ's experience massive hot spots, and we've seen windows of cold spots. This explains why that occurs. There are literally certain periods of time where a synth's chances of HQ increase or decrease based on the in game factors. And I'm confident there are three factors that affect whatever the current HQ range is

Element of the crystal used
Element of the current in gam eday
Time of day

Time of day equates to light and darkness. With 00:00 midnight being 100% darkness, and 12:00 noon being 100% light

Good luck ever figuring out how to abuse that though. That shits far too complex for me. I just craft when I feel like it or when I have time. But it was very interesting to find out, because it gives me a bit of insight into what is most likely going on "behind the scenes" in thegames coding. little things like that always interested me.

Honestly, I thought you were intelligent. I hope this is a troll.

Not only has SE outright said day and moon phase have no impact on crafting result, the variations people see are well within the range of what you'd get if it were pure random chance. A basic simulation can easily verify this, if you somehow forgot everything from intro to statistics.
 Asura.Ladyofhonor
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By Asura.Ladyofhonor 2019-12-18 08:55:31
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Odin.Slore said: »
Asura.Ladyofhonor said: »
Odin.Slore said: »
Look at my ah history. Was having no problem with hq's till a few days ago. Tried Moonlight rings as well I've hq'ed them tons of times. Not a single hq out of like 80 synths... this is beyond reason.

Looking at your post history it's not a huge surprise you're quick to jump to conspiracy theories. If there was a crafting bug or ninja nerf, all prices would have doubled by now and there'd be a hug clamor on the forums.

What the hell does my post history have to do with conspiracy theories? Like where in the hell did you get that? I asked about crafting.

And you got some bad luck and instantly go to "OMG GUYZ, SE NINJA NERFED THINGS". That's a topic that used to pop up after like...every single patch, about a wide variety of issues, and 99% of the time, no change, just RNG being RNG.
 Odin.Slore
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By Odin.Slore 2019-12-18 08:59:53
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Odin.Slore said: »
Heys guys, Wondering if anyone heard about a crafting change or whatnot. Since update I cannot hit a hq. I tried about 60 synths on neck yesterday and didn't even get a +1. Yesterday and today tried to make some tathlums did about 100 synths... not one hq. I know bad luck is bad luck but this is beyond that. Not sure if they changed *** something up with shields or what not but other crafters I know on server are having same problem.

So anyone else notice anything since update?

I never claimed a conspiracy or anything like it. I simply stated since update the hq rate for ME has plummeted. I never said SE nerffed it. I asked if anyone else is experiencing the same effect. Some said yes, others said no. I only asked this question to see if others have issues. I never said sky was falling. Wanting to know if something is possibly broke for others or if I am just having ***luck does not strike me as a conspiracy.
 
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 Fenrir.Melphina
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By Fenrir.Melphina 2019-12-18 09:08:50
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Quote:
Honestly, I thought you were intelligent. I hope this is a troll.

Not only has SE outright said day and moon phase have no impact on crafting result, the variations people see are well within the range of what you'd get if it were pure random chance. A basic simulation can easily verify this, if you somehow forgot everything from intro to statistics.


I haven't done much crafting in years and I haven't paid attention to any statements s-e said about it either. The last time I did any serious crafting was back in the 75 era when I hq'd my hecatomb gear. Nowadays I throw a few synth mats together once in a blue moon and call it a day. If s-e said moon phase has no impact then so be it. I have no reason to doubt them. I just saw the theorum and immediately thought of the in game elemental chart. There's a very real possibility that that's the driving formula that runs the code behind the scenes. Whether specific factors actually matter or not is none of my concern.

I'm no professional mathematician and I don't know the first thing about trigonometry. That depth of that formula goes well over my head. The theorum would still balance out hq rates over time, and it's a fair explination of why people see what they see with their hq hot streaks and dry spells. This isn't the first time I've seen a thread where someone swore "S-E changed something" and it just turned out to be bad luck. The concept behind what the star of david theorum's does is all I care about. It kind of does validate the claims that "HQ luck streaks really do happen for a reason", but in the end you still have no control over when they occur and you should just be thankful whenever you happen to hit one.
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By Shiva.Thorny 2019-12-18 09:21:04
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Fenrir.Melphina said: »
I'm no professional mathematician and I don't know the first damn thing about trigonometry. That formula goes miles beyond my understanding. The theorum would still balance out hq rates over time, and it's a fair explination of why people see what they see with their hq hot streaks and dry spells. This isn't the first time I've seen a thread where someone swore "S-E changed something" and it just turned out to be bad luck. The concept behind what the star of david theorum's does is all I care about. It kind of does validate the claims that "HQ luck streaks really do happen for a reason", but in the end you still have no control over when they occur and you should just be thankful whenever you happen to hit one.

I thought you were a software developer, though. Surely you understand that you don't need any specific theorem to model a variable probability system.

The star of david theorem is geometrical, and in simpler terms just means that:
Given 2 triangles that overlap, where all vertices are on the same circle, you can draw lines from each intersecting point to the furthest opposite intersecting point and all lines will meet at the center of the circle.

It has no relevance to probability, it cannot be used for probability, and I honestly thought it was an elaborate troll post when you mentioned it. Likely whoever mentioned it to you was trolling you in the first place.

That said, again, a simple simulation will reveal that streaks are not only normal, but to be expected, in a truly random system. There is no reason to believe this is actually a variable probability system at all, much less based on a theorem that has minimal value to geometry/trig and none to programming.
 Odin.Drakenv
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By Odin.Drakenv 2019-12-18 09:24:36
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Asura.Bartimaeus said: »
Shiva.Thorny said: »
Fenrir.Melphina said: »
I've actually got my own theory about how the HQ code works. Many years ago I did a bunch of testing when Eruntalon claimed to have figured out "the perfect method". No, I don't buy his claim. No, there is no way to guarantee a HQ. Yes, he was full of crap. But there has to be a mathamatical equation that drives the FFXI crafting system. And One day i found just that. This right here might look familiar to a few of you. It's called the Star of David Theorum, and it's literally the mathematical relationship that the in game elemnts must be following. It is to the very tee an eequation that gives a working functionality to the the elemental relationships

http://mathworld.wolfram.com/StarofDavidTheorem.html

Back when Motenten still played the game I brought this up with him once and he explained to me a bit about it. The star of david theorum is an advanced trigonomic formula that creates a range of possibilities. Based off the numbers input, the range is either widened or reduced. Esentially the way I see it, the in game elemental relationship between crystal and day of the week is being plugged into the formula to create said range, and then a random number is thrown in on top of it. If that random number falls within whatever the HQ range is, you get your HQ, and if not you don't.

We've seen windows where HQ's experience massive hot spots, and we've seen windows of cold spots. This explains why that occurs. There are literally certain periods of time where a synth's chances of HQ increase or decrease based on the in game factors. And I'm confident there are three factors that affect whatever the current HQ range is

Element of the crystal used
Element of the current in gam eday
Time of day

Time of day equates to light and darkness. With 00:00 midnight being 100% darkness, and 12:00 noon being 100% light

Good luck ever figuring out how to abuse that though. That shits far too complex for me. I just craft when I feel like it or when I have time. But it was very interesting to find out, because it gives me a bit of insight into what is most likely going on "behind the scenes" in thegames coding. little things like that always interested me.

[...]

Not only has SE outright said day and moon phase have no impact on crafting result, the variations people see are well within the range of what you'd get if it were pure random chance. A basic simulation can easily verify this, if you somehow forgot everything from intro to statistics.

This reminded me of a crafting directional thread from here some years ago and an Admin's insight on it:

https://www.ffxiah.com/forum/topic/183/direction-matters-in-synthing#784


Podcast now
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 Asura.Xanders
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By Asura.Xanders 2019-12-18 09:28:49
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Ok evidence to the contrary. Neck run with 5 stacks of mats yielded 8(+1) and 8(+2). That's an above average HQ rate, so may be bad luck hitting a group of ppl at the same time.
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 Shiva.Thorny
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By Shiva.Thorny 2019-12-18 09:30:07
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Asura.Xanders said: »
so may be bad luck hitting a group of ppl at the same time

It's honestly probably not even that. If you have a bad luck streak and go looking for other people who've had bad luck, not only are you likely to ignore people who've had good luck, but those you talk to are more likely to remember the bad over the good. So, you can make this kind of thread pretty much any time over anything and have some kind of support for your idea.

Humans love to put meaning where there is none.
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By Fenrir.Melphina 2019-12-18 10:06:28
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Quote:
I thought you were a software developer, though. Surely you understand that you don't need any specific theorem to model a variable probability system.just means that:
Given 2 triangles that overlap, where all vertices are on the same circle, you can draw lines from each intersecting point to the furthest opposite intersecting point and all lines will meet at the center of the circle.


Fair enough. It's been over 12 years since I stumbled upon that and back then I was pretty much an immature brat just graduated from high school. I work with database software and most of the things I develop revolve around reporting mechanisms and integrating new functionalities into said database, as well as adding site functionality and adjusting web layout for the new features. There's a lot we do, but it's not actually building software from the ground up.

Quote:
It has no relevance to probability, it cannot be used for probability,

Then I take back what I said earlier. It wouldn't be the first time I've put my foot in my mouth. It was a notion that I had years ago back when I actually cared about the crafting system, but I drifted away from crafting when abyssea happened and never got back into it. I'll be the first to admit a lot of the stuff I said or did back then was pretty dumb. Referencing something I came up with during that time frame was probably a bad idea, but it did make sense at the time. Oh well, thanks for the clarification though. Often times the simplest answer is also the best one. I'm fine with that explanation.
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By Pantafernando 2019-12-18 13:08:36
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Odin.Slore said: »
Yeah I think this is more than bad luck. Neck synths are 110. Have all gear/bonus/hq rings etc and completed crafting shield. To not get a single hq1 or hq2 out of 60+ synths is beyond bad luck. The tathlums I can see they 116 synth but even that to not get a single hq out of over 100 synths is to odd. I've been making a living off thf necks and tathlums for weeks now I can't even seem to come close to a hq. I'd buy 2 stacks of mats and get maybe 2-3 hq's sometimes even more but since last week or so I can't craft a thing. I have talked to other crafters as well with shields and they report that their hq rates have plummeted as well. Just wasn't sure if SE threw some ninja update in there. I could see me just havin a bad streak but 3 other crafters as well?

Unless im forgetting anything, you should be T0 either on necks (that have subs and you wont be getting 81 on sub, and on staumch that you need to have 128 to be a T1.

I wonder if equipping same gear on multiple slots is a cheat working nowaday.
 
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