AGW Theory - Discussion

Eorzea Time
 
 
 
Language: JP EN FR DE
Version 3.1
New Items
users online
Forum » Everything Else » Politics and Religion » AGW Theory - Discussion
AGW Theory - Discussion
First Page 2 3 ... 5 6 7 ... 39 40 41
 Cerberus.Pleebo
Offline
Server: Cerberus
Game: FFXI
user: Pleebo
Posts: 9720
By Cerberus.Pleebo 2015-09-03 12:13:00
Link | Quote | Reply
 
Asura.Kingnobody said: »
See, there's one now. And he posted AFTER this post.....

He even followed up with a sneer too!
It's completely nonsensical to not acknowledge the opinion of the scientific majority especially when the majority is as large as it is with AWG. Not everyone has the time or ability to pour through scientific literature or conduct their own research into the matter. The layman could reserve judgement, sure, but we're long past the point where it's an idle issue.
Asura.Kingnobody said: »
However, I still think it's best to ask about the very data they seem to rely on, because it seems like that data keeps changing every week!
So glad you asked! I realized that last study utilized quite a bit of data that's readily available. A basic google search of the data sets sent me right to the data portals (or at least a few clicks away). I'll be generous today and spare everyone that mundane task though :)

CMIP5 - Data Access - Data Portal (model outputs so now's your chance to test their efficacy, Nausi)
http://forecast.bcccsm.ncc-cma.net/web/channel-34.htm (you can spot check for corrupt data, King)
Hadcrut4 temperature data (self-explanatory)
 Bahamut.Ravael
Offline
Server: Bahamut
Game: FFXI
user: Ravael
Posts: 13617
By Bahamut.Ravael 2015-09-03 12:17:43
Link | Quote | Reply
 
If I'm reading this correctly, the CMIP5 data access is down for "overhaul".
[+]
VIP
Offline
Posts: 12259
By Jassik 2015-09-03 12:18:39
Link | Quote | Reply
 
Bahamut.Ravael said: »
And I'm sure part of it is due to the fact that a lot of people see scientists as some kind of magical field of genius, lab coat wearing robots, because they're too naive to know any better. There are no doubt really good scientists out there who care about quality and removing all bias from their studies, but there are also a ton of not-even-that-smart, biased, lazy, corning-cutting hacks who will find a way to tell you whatever you want to hear to secure their paychecks. And when you have two opposing sides of "scientists" on the same issue and you lack the skills to verify any of it, why not just go with the majority (because you're too afraid of going against the crowd), or the minority (because it's, like, a conspiracy, man!), or just the one that suits your preference?

Me personally, I see a ton of potential in clean renewable energy that isn't being utilized because of the power and wealth of people who stand to lose. I want cheap and clean energy, even if that means having to pay it forward so my kids or grandkids are beneficiaries instead of patsies.

I boil things down to a pretty simple model in these situations. I am not an expert, so I defer to experts, and when experts aren't in agreement, I quantify their expertise by volume, common factors, and vested interest. In this case, the vast majority agree on one conclusion, another large amount agree the conclusion is plausible but the methodology needs work, and a very small number flat out disagree yet have no conclusive criticisms that they aren't equally at fault in. And, when the dissentors work for a lobbyist group for big oil, it even further sours their credibility with me. And of the very few dissentors who didn't work for big oil, a few have been outed as taking very large amounts of money from big oil without disclosing it even to the IRS.
[+]
 Cerberus.Pleebo
Offline
Server: Cerberus
Game: FFXI
user: Pleebo
Posts: 9720
By Cerberus.Pleebo 2015-09-03 12:22:02
Link | Quote | Reply
 
Bahamut.Ravael said: »
If I'm reading this correctly, the CMIP5 data access is down for "overhaul".
Apparently.
VIP
Offline
Posts: 12259
By Jassik 2015-09-03 12:26:31
Link | Quote | Reply
 
Bahamut.Ravael said: »
If I'm reading this correctly, the CMIP5 data access is down for "overhaul".

It's not uncommon for systems to be downed for repair or maintenance, but it always looks suspicious.
[+]
 Bahamut.Ravael
Offline
Server: Bahamut
Game: FFXI
user: Ravael
Posts: 13617
By Bahamut.Ravael 2015-09-03 12:33:24
Link | Quote | Reply
 
Jassik said: »
Bahamut.Ravael said: »
And I'm sure part of it is due to the fact that a lot of people see scientists as some kind of magical field of genius, lab coat wearing robots, because they're too naive to know any better. There are no doubt really good scientists out there who care about quality and removing all bias from their studies, but there are also a ton of not-even-that-smart, biased, lazy, corning-cutting hacks who will find a way to tell you whatever you want to hear to secure their paychecks. And when you have two opposing sides of "scientists" on the same issue and you lack the skills to verify any of it, why not just go with the majority (because you're too afraid of going against the crowd), or the minority (because it's, like, a conspiracy, man!), or just the one that suits your preference?

Me personally, I see a ton of potential in clean renewable energy that isn't being utilized because of the power and wealth of people who stand to lose. I want cheap and clean energy, even if that means having to pay it forward so my kids or grandkids are beneficiaries instead of patsies.

I boil things down to a pretty simple model in these situations. I am not an expert, so I defer to experts, and when experts aren't in agreement, I quantify their expertise by volume, common factors, and vested interest. In this case, the vast majority agree on one conclusion, another large amount agree the conclusion is plausible but the methodology needs work, and a very small number flat out disagree yet have no conclusive criticisms that they aren't equally at fault in. And, when the dissentors work for a lobbyist group for big oil, it even further sours their credibility with me. And of the very few dissentors who didn't work for big oil, a few have been outed as taking very large amounts of money from big oil without disclosing it even to the IRS.

Well, I'm sure there are supporters that can be linked to alternative energy lobbyists too, but I get your point. In any case, I don't even care what side people take on the issue. Any attempt to get me to agree with the majority because they're the majority will be met with resistance and a hearty "Screw you", though. I already have a small carbon footprint. I'm already an advocate for protecting the environment (within reason). I'm all for technological advances that support green energy. When it comes to AGW acceptance though, It's not like you're offering me a time-sensitive life-saving procedure that a majority of doctors agree is necessary. You're offering me a chance to be a part of the great collective of thought where my personal involvement or rejection will change absolutely nothing. So no, I will not be taking anyone's word for it (scientist or otherwise) the way things stand now, but I will sure have a lot of fun fighting against the people who try to get me to.
[+]
 Leviathan.Chaosx
Offline
Server: Leviathan
Game: FFXI
user: ChaosX128
Posts: 20284
By Leviathan.Chaosx 2015-09-03 12:37:59
Link | Quote | Reply
 
Jassik said: »
Bahamut.Ravael said: »
If I'm reading this correctly, the CMIP5 data access is down for "overhaul".

It's not uncommon for systems to be downed for repair or maintenance, but it always looks suspicious.
We finally get a lead on some data and it's down 'for repair.'
[+]
VIP
Offline
Posts: 12259
By Jassik 2015-09-03 12:38:43
Link | Quote | Reply
 
Bahamut.Ravael said: »
Well, I'm sure there are supporters that can be linked to alternative energy lobbyists too, but I get your point. In any case, I don't even care what side people take on the issue. Any attempt to get me to agree with the majority because they're the majority will be met with resistance and a hearty "Screw you", though. I already have a small carbon footprint. I'm already an advocate for protecting the environment (within reason). I'm all for technological advances that support green energy. When it comes to AGW acceptance though, It's not like you're offering me a time-sensitive life-saving procedure that a majority of doctors agree is necessary. You're offering me a chance to be a part of the great collective of thought where my personal involvement or rejection will change absolutely nothing. So no, I will not be taking anyone's word for it (scientist or otherwise) the way things stand now, but I will sure have a lot of fun fighting against the people who try to get me to.

I've always lived as green as possible. Even down to collecting rainwater for our vegetable gardens. But, I'm also a car enthusiast, and I can't imagine building another hot rod and putting a hydrogen powered steam engine in it. Some people won't even consider the thought that they don't need to drive a jacked up suburban to get a pack of gum, whether they have the right to or not.
[+]
 Bahamut.Ravael
Offline
Server: Bahamut
Game: FFXI
user: Ravael
Posts: 13617
By Bahamut.Ravael 2015-09-03 12:41:58
Link | Quote | Reply
 
Leviathan.Chaosx said: »
Jassik said: »
Bahamut.Ravael said: »
If I'm reading this correctly, the CMIP5 data access is down for "overhaul".

It's not uncommon for systems to be downed for repair or maintenance, but it always looks suspicious.
We finally get a lead on some data and it's down 'for repair.'

Lol, yeah. One of the links has data that's readable in the stats program known as "R" though, so that's nice (even though I haven't used that program in a while). The other one has far too many freaking links for me to deal with.
[+]
VIP
Offline
Posts: 12259
By Jassik 2015-09-03 12:42:39
Link | Quote | Reply
 
Leviathan.Chaosx said: »
Jassik said: »
Bahamut.Ravael said: »
If I'm reading this correctly, the CMIP5 data access is down for "overhaul".

It's not uncommon for systems to be downed for repair or maintenance, but it always looks suspicious.
We finally get a lead on some data and it's down 'for repair.'

Yep. Looks suspicious. For what it's worth, it appears to be the portal/database and not the actual instruments that are down. It seems that the old public portal was deprecated and eventually taken offline, the new host chose to overhaul the structure. They do list an email to contact for access to the data sets. At least on the surface it's legitimate reason for it to not be available.
 Cerberus.Pleebo
Offline
Server: Cerberus
Game: FFXI
user: Pleebo
Posts: 9720
By Cerberus.Pleebo 2015-09-03 12:49:05
Link | Quote | Reply
 
Suspicious? Seriously?
 Leviathan.Chaosx
Offline
Server: Leviathan
Game: FFXI
user: ChaosX128
Posts: 20284
By Leviathan.Chaosx 2015-09-03 12:50:44
Link | Quote | Reply
 
The climate scientists are always one step ahead...
[+]
 Valefor.Sehachan
Guide Maker
Offline
Server: Valefor
Game: FFXI
user: Seha
Posts: 24219
By Valefor.Sehachan 2015-09-03 12:51:53
Link | Quote | Reply
 
very suspiscius

[+]
 Cerberus.Pleebo
Offline
Server: Cerberus
Game: FFXI
user: Pleebo
Posts: 9720
By Cerberus.Pleebo 2015-09-03 12:53:22
Link | Quote | Reply
 
The second link contains similar data sets to the first. Hurry, guys! Before they get to those too!
[+]
VIP
Offline
Posts: 12259
By Jassik 2015-09-03 12:54:41
Link | Quote | Reply
 
Cerberus.Pleebo said: »
Suspicious? Seriously?

If you suspected them of tampering or hiding data, their system being down would look suspicious however routine or justifiable it was.
 Cerberus.Pleebo
Offline
Server: Cerberus
Game: FFXI
user: Pleebo
Posts: 9720
By Cerberus.Pleebo 2015-09-03 12:57:51
Link | Quote | Reply
 
I must have missed the conspiracy involving the World Research Climate Programme.
[+]
 Asura.Kingnobody
Bug Hunter
Offline
Server: Asura
Game: FFXI
Posts: 34187
By Asura.Kingnobody 2015-09-03 12:58:53
Link | Quote | Reply
 
Cerberus.Pleebo said: »
Asura.Kingnobody said: »
See, there's one now. And he posted AFTER this post.....

He even followed up with a sneer too!
It's completely nonsensical to not acknowledge the opinion of the scientific majority especially when the majority is as large as it is with AWG. Not everyone has the time or ability to pour through scientific literature or conduct their own research into the matter. The layman could reserve judgement, sure, but we're long past the point where it's an idle issue.
Asura.Kingnobody said: »
However, I still think it's best to ask about the very data they seem to rely on, because it seems like that data keeps changing every week!
So glad you asked! I realized that last study utilized quite a bit of data that's readily available. A basic google search of the data sets sent me right to the data portals (or at least a few clicks away). I'll be generous today and spare everyone that mundane task though :)

CMIP5 - Data Access - Data Portal (model outputs so now's your chance to test their efficacy, Nausi)
http://forecast.bcccsm.ncc-cma.net/web/channel-34.htm (you can spot check for corrupt data, King)
Hadcrut4 temperature data (self-explanatory)
First link refers to another link regarding data storage. New link is also "down" for maintenance...

Second link refers to the first link as the source of the data. Since first link refers to new link, which is "down," it is impossible to verify that the data is accurate.

Third link has scrubbed data, also requires it's own type of file formatting to open. I thought you would have seen that for yourself Pleebo. I'm disappointed in you!
 Leviathan.Chaosx
Offline
Server: Leviathan
Game: FFXI
user: ChaosX128
Posts: 20284
By Leviathan.Chaosx 2015-09-03 13:00:32
Link | Quote | Reply
 
Asura.Kingnobody said: »
scrubbed data
Is Hillary in charge of it?
[+]
 Cerberus.Pleebo
Offline
Server: Cerberus
Game: FFXI
user: Pleebo
Posts: 9720
By Cerberus.Pleebo 2015-09-03 13:00:51
Link | Quote | Reply
 
Found the data just fine on the second link. Click smarter, not harder.
Asura.Kingnobody said: »
Third link has scrubbed data
lol...

You have no intention of examining data. Leave it be.
[+]
 Asura.Kingnobody
Bug Hunter
Offline
Server: Asura
Game: FFXI
Posts: 34187
By Asura.Kingnobody 2015-09-03 13:01:02
Link | Quote | Reply
 
Leviathan.Chaosx said: »
Asura.Kingnobody said: »
scrubbed data
Is Hillary in charge of it?
Scrubbed, not deleted/erased. So, no.
 Asura.Kingnobody
Bug Hunter
Offline
Server: Asura
Game: FFXI
Posts: 34187
By Asura.Kingnobody 2015-09-03 13:03:43
Link | Quote | Reply
 
Cerberus.Pleebo said: »
Found the data just fine on the second link. Click smarter, not harder.
Asura.Kingnobody said: »
Third link has scrubbed data
lol...

You have no intention of examining data. Leave it be.
Data is supposed to come from the same source as the first, yet the first has "disappeared" for some reason, so how can we tell if they are the same?

Are we supposed to take your word for it because you said so?
 Cerberus.Pleebo
Offline
Server: Cerberus
Game: FFXI
user: Pleebo
Posts: 9720
By Cerberus.Pleebo 2015-09-03 13:05:40
Link | Quote | Reply
 
Cerberus.Pleebo said: »
The second link contains similar data sets to the first. Hurry, guys! Before they get to those too!
Cerberus.Pleebo said: »
similar data sets
Cerberus.Pleebo said: »
similar
 Cerberus.Pleebo
Offline
Server: Cerberus
Game: FFXI
user: Pleebo
Posts: 9720
By Cerberus.Pleebo 2015-09-03 13:34:46
Link | Quote | Reply
 
A very thorough summary of the changes made by NOAA to their data sets: http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2015/06/new-noaa-reports-shows-no-recent-warming-slowdown-or-pause/

Also contains links to three other temperature data sets.
 Valefor.Sehachan
Guide Maker
Offline
Server: Valefor
Game: FFXI
user: Seha
Posts: 24219
By Valefor.Sehachan 2015-09-03 13:35:53
Link | Quote | Reply
 
Cerberus.Pleebo said: »
NOAA
Also a very suspicious name for an organization dealing with climate change..!
[+]
 Bahamut.Ravael
Offline
Server: Bahamut
Game: FFXI
user: Ravael
Posts: 13617
By Bahamut.Ravael 2015-09-03 13:42:19
Link | Quote | Reply
 
Valefor.Sehachan said: »
Cerberus.Pleebo said: »
NOAA
Also a very suspicious name for an organization dealing with climate change..!

NOAA... Noah... glaciers melting... floods! I see the connection! Good work, Watson.
[+]
 Ragnarok.Nausi
Offline
Server: Ragnarok
Game: FFXI
user: Nausi
Posts: 6709
By Ragnarok.Nausi 2015-09-03 15:08:15
Link | Quote | Reply
 
Leviathan.Chaosx said: »
Asura.Kingnobody said: »
scrubbed data
Is Hillary in charge of it?

What like with a cloth?
[+]
 Sylph.Jeanpaul
MSPaint Champion
Offline
Server: Sylph
Game: FFXI
user: JeanPaul
Posts: 2623
By Sylph.Jeanpaul 2015-09-03 16:54:40
Link | Quote | Reply
 
I was gonna get ready to deconstruct Saevel's big posts about NOAA's data but I'm guessing he didn't even read his own link to NOAA. They point out that they updated their data by improving/correcting factors relating to sea-surface temperatures. But then I guess he's probably going to just dismiss them as liars and frauds cuz Watts told him watt was uphe was able to objectively and independently *** all aspects of the methodology and data.

Bahamut.Ravael said: »
Well, I'm sure there are supporters that can be linked to alternative energy lobbyists too, but I get your point. In any case, I don't even care what side people take on the issue. Any attempt to get me to agree with the majority because they're the majority will be met with resistance and a hearty "Screw you", though. I already have a small carbon footprint. I'm already an advocate for protecting the environment (within reason). I'm all for technological advances that support green energy. When it comes to AGW acceptance though, It's not like you're offering me a time-sensitive life-saving procedure that a majority of doctors agree is necessary. You're offering me a chance to be a part of the great collective of thought where my personal involvement or rejection will change absolutely nothing. So no, I will not be taking anyone's word for it (scientist or otherwise) the way things stand now, but I will sure have a lot of fun fighting against the people who try to get me to.
The way I see it, what prevents any real advancements from taking place are primarily economic issues, with some skewing caused by taxes/subsidies and other policies. This is without even getting into the logistics of how the hell anyone could hope to replace the infrastructure. Incidentally, in the US, we are subsidizing the import of fossil fuels and the export of ethanol (which we make a shitload of). I wish I still had the document, but a few years ago I did some calculations that showed that the US produces enough corn (of which like 10% is used for human consumption, 4% being HFCS) to create ethanol (which already accounts for like 35%) to replace our gasoline use. In such a scenario, it would pretty much require taking much of the corn from livestock feed purposes (which were also like 35%).
[+]
 Asura.Saevel
Offline
Server: Asura
Game: FFXI
Posts: 9658
By Asura.Saevel 2015-09-04 00:29:08
Link | Quote | Reply
 
Bahamut.Ravael said: »
Jassik said: »
Think tank founded by energy interests investigates AGW and finds it's a hoax... That is the very definition of a conflict of interest.

There is a conflict of interest in a lot of scientific studies. It raises eyebrows when it's so obvious, for sure, but it doesn't automatically disqualify their conclusions. It just means you have to, as always, do the extra leg work to verify it.

What's interesting is I never referenced the CATO institute.

You just like the progressives dupe you into accepting their change of the narrative. I know it's a reflex but you gotta step back and ask yourself "is this statement rational and does it follow logic, or did they jump the shark and throw word salad up in an attempt to confuse and distract".

I posted a conclusion with information and data. Another political entity had also come to that "conclusion" by their own means unrelated to mind. The progressives then attempt to link my statement with the other entities statement, and then attack the validity of the other entity with the assumption that it's a valid attack on mine. A more complicated form of straw man fallacy.

That is why I blacklisted those individuals. It's intellectually dishonest and demonstrate they aren't actually wanting a discussion, but instead want to "score points" for their home team. Remember in junior high you had that group of kids who thought they were super cool by making "your mom" or *** jokes and generally disrespecting everyone / everything outside of their circle? Would you expect to have a rational discussion or even an adult conversation with them? Me neither, and that's all these other posters really are. They want to make themselves feel superior so now mater what you say, their answer is "your mom".

Just imagine every "Koch brothers" / ect.. reference as "Your Mom!" to see how silly it gets.
[+]
 Asura.Saevel
Offline
Server: Asura
Game: FFXI
Posts: 9658
By Asura.Saevel 2015-09-04 00:36:08
Link | Quote | Reply
 
Quote:
The way I see it, what prevents any real advancements from taking place are primarily economic issues, with some skewing caused by taxes/subsidies and other policies. This is without even getting into the logistics of how the hell anyone could hope to replace the infrastructure. Incidentally, in the US, we are subsidizing the import of fossil fuels and the export of ethanol (which we make a shitload of). I wish I still had the document, but a few years ago I did some calculations that showed that the US produces enough corn (of which like 10% is used for human consumption, 4% being HFCS) to create ethanol (which already accounts for like 35%) to replace our gasoline use. In such a scenario, it would pretty much require taking much of the corn from livestock feed purposes (which were also like 35%).

Not even remotely close. Your only thinking in volume but ethanol contains something like less then half the energy density of gasoline, while simultaneously being more expensive. Also the price of food has risen, as a direct consequence of ethanol incentives because while humans only eat a small portion, our animals, which we eat, eat the rest. That chicken breast you ate, that's corn. That beer, that's corn too. Corn is the cornerstone of our agricultural economy and government manipulation of it only causes the poor to have to pay more. Try to see everything ethanol related as a regressive tax on the poor.

Plus we can just synthesize hydrocarbon fuels if need be, their energy density is only beat by nuclear. Carbon feed-stock with hydrogen and a ***ton of energy from a nearby reactor.

Quote:
They point out that they updated their data by improving/correcting factors relating to sea-surface temperatures

That's known as data manipulation. I've already gone over this but you don't like reading. The guidelines for how the data is manipulated were written by a man who's agenda is so radical that the Climate Folks think he's an extremest. It's already been empirically demonstrated that the data manipulation isn't about improving the data, unless you believe in the Soviet concept of improvement, but about creating evidence to support an agenda.

Made a big splash back in 2009, you guys forget so easily.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/08/the-smoking-gun-at-darwin-zero/

This was followed by people actually going out to these sites to see what was up. Huge problems arose the eventually lead to Australia getting a more anti-AGW government.

The logic goes as thus, for data taken after industrialization

If the site is reporting cooler then it's closet neighbors, raise it's temperature until it averages out.

If the site is warmer then it's closest neighbors, raise their temperatures until it averages out.

If the site is already at equilibrium with it's neighbors, but another site in that same region had a warmer temperate, raise all sits to average out.

Using this logic, it's impossible to get a downward adjustment, only an upward one.

The reverse logic is then applied to any historical data from before industrialization, always adjusting them downwards.


The result of those two methods is that you get this giant exaggerated line where it looks super cold in the past, but then explodes into a fireball in the present. You then draw a trend line through it, and "predict" that in 5,10,20,30 years the trend will continue and ice will cease to exist on the planet and everything dies.

Until of course that trend line doesn't happen ... the temps don't climb as much, then the temps stop climbing altogether and your sitting there with a prediction that it should be much warmer then it currently is. And people start asking what happened, so you reply "Your MOM!", wait I mean "Koch Brothers!".
[+]
 Asura.Saevel
Offline
Server: Asura
Game: FFXI
Posts: 9658
By Asura.Saevel 2015-09-04 00:51:40
Link | Quote | Reply
 
And finially... if anyone of you actually believe data / code has ever been "lost" then your idiots. When millions of USD worth of research grants relies on people doing months of research and then presenting that research, you can bet your *** they have multiple backups along with previous editions of everything.

"Computer crash" doesn't even wipe data, it's still recoverable by any junior level IT professional. If my company can pay a data recovery company $50,000 USD to do an emergency recover of data off a dead corrupted RAID array, then any university can get someone to do a data scrap off a HDD.

In order of data to be "gone" they would of had to burn the entire building down along with any other system connected to the same network and any off site backups that were kept by the network providers.

So no, "data corrupted / gone / computer crash / ect.." is just an excuse for when people did bad things, know they did bad things, and don't want anyone else to be able to prove they did bad things.
[+]
First Page 2 3 ... 5 6 7 ... 39 40 41